Baijiu plate: December potential catalyst for the dealer conference to convey positive target planning & adjustment of volume and price strategy & potential stock option incentive Landing & Channel Spring Festival stock performance, etc., firmly optimistic about the stock market of Spring Festival, and at the same time, wide credit super expected or positive plate performance, recommend strengthening Baijiu plate configuration. From top to bottom, we are firmly optimistic about the logic of both attack and Defense & catalyzing the high-end wine being gradually realized, with Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) being the first; From the bottom up, we first recommend 22 years of high elasticity & high certainty, which is expected to usher in Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and so on. Pay attention to Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) .
Food sector: at present, we still focus on the target of the food sector. On the one hand, in the medium and long term, we continue to emphasize two main investment lines: food industrialization and the increase of new businesses (such as normal temperature cheese and prefabricated dishes) α The subject of. On the other hand, in the short term, in addition to paying attention to the performance elasticity brought by the price increase for high-quality enterprises, we can also pay attention to the investment opportunities in the baking sector. Combination this week: Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) .
December 6th ~12 10, 5 trading days, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 3.14%, food and beverage sector rose 5.47%, Baijiu plate rose more than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 5.44%. Specifically, this week, the increase of Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) (+ 26.72%) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+ 19.90%) in the beverage sector was relatively large, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (- 0.23%) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (- 0.05%) were relatively small; this week, the increase of Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (+ 21.12%) and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 16.72%) in the food sector was relatively top, Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) (- 11.33%) and Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) (- 7.34%) were relatively bottom.
This week’s view
[Baijiu]: when catalytic cashing is made, Baijiu can start a good market.
Plate review: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancelled the policy of unpacking, and the marketing reform is expected to increase by 10 months in December 6th, 5 on the 5 trading day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 3.14%, the food and beverage sector rose 5.47%, and the Baijiu plate increased by more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 5.44%. The Baijiu plate is specific. Laobaigan (+ 26.72%), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+ 19.90%), Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (+ 11.74%) led the increase, and the undervalued targets performed well this week. In the second half of the week, Laobaigan, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and other targets touched the daily limit: first, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : Feitian Maotai unpacking policy was cancelled, with unplanned delivery, and the price may be stable. After Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) at the end of October After canceling the unpacking of non-standard wine, The unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai has been adjusted: 1) the recently added 600-800 tons of Feitian Maotai (1 * 12 bottles / box) will continue the previous unpacking policy; 2) the original (1 * 6 bottles / box) Maotai liquor dealers are willing to unpack and are not forced. We believe that in the short term, the increase of unplanned bulk bottle quota and the superposition of the original Feitian Maotai liquor can not be unpacked, and the price of the original box liquor will be or decreased, while the price of bulk bottle liquor will remain stable on the whole (the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottle is 2600-2700 yuan this week, and the wholesale price of the whole box is 3500-3580 yuan, which is basically the same month on month. At present, most dealers complete the payment in December); in the medium and long term, we believe that after the marketing reform measures are gradually put down, Maotai liquor will maintain a steady development after the wholesale price. In addition, on December 6, the 12th centralized study and discussion of the theoretical learning center group held by the Party committee of Maotai Group At the meeting, Ding Xiongjun asked to further strengthen leadership and execution, establish the quality concept of “five craftsmen”, take the “five lines” development path, build the “five systems”, concentrate on the “closing battle” this year and the “opening battle” next year, and strive to promote Maotai to achieve high-quality development.
2、 Laobaigan: with the continuation of the consumption fever of sauce and wine, Wuling wine will release profits or give Laobaigan flexibility. We believe that the main focus of Laobaigan lies in the profit elasticity brought by the release of potential profits of Wuling wine, and the main business of Laobaigan has also recovered. Specifically:
1) General environment: under the background of “although the channel heat fades, the consumption heat continues” of sauce wine, sauce wine will benefit most from the expansion of thousand yuan price band, among which Wuling wine, which focuses on thousand yuan price band, will also benefit.
2) Brand structure: Wuling liquor has the brands of Hengshui Laobaigan series (fragrance type), Chengde zuiling series (Luzhou flavor type), wenwanggong series (Luzhou flavor type), Confucius family liquor series (Luzhou flavor type) and Wuling liquor series (Maotai flavor type). In 2020, the revenue accounts for 58.94%, 14.79%, 8.69%, 4.34% and 13.23% respectively, of which Wuling liquor has the highest gross profit margin (up to 80%) is the main performance growth point; Laobaigan plate has increased slightly in 1915 and 18th distillery in 15 and 20 years.
3) Wuling wine elasticity: Wuling wine reform red has been continuously released since 18 years, The main series are ① sauce series (Shang sauce, Wuling king and Zhong sauce); ② geek series; ③ customized wine, with revenue accounting for 60%, 30% and 10% respectively, and products above 1000 yuan. The revenue / net profit of Wuling wine in 20 years was about 450 million and 120 million; the taxable income in 2021 may exceed 800 million, and the company may have the possibility of high profit elasticity in the coming year.
3、 The quality of sauce wine continues to increase, and the practice of wine has entered the 10 billion camp. On December 12, Xijiu held a national dealer conference with the theme of “strengthening the foundation, strengthening the foundation, transforming and upgrading, promoting high-quality development; making concerted efforts, carrying forward the past and forging ahead into the future, building a new and learning pattern”. Under the background of the continuing popularity of sauce and wine, the company created high-end large products, reduced low-end products and increased the sales proportion of high-end products, In 2021, the operating revenue reached over 13 billion yuan (+ 30% +). Looking forward to 2022, the revenue target of Xijiu will be 17.7 billion yuan, and the following six major plans will be made: 1) expand production capacity, store old wine, strengthen the foundation and improve quality; 2) promote culture and communication, focus on high-end and strong brands; 3) go global and introduce, and continue to expand consumer groups; 4) prevent risks and crisis, and ensure the stability and long-term development of Xijiu; 5) support excellent merchants Cultivate business and continuously deepen the “five focuses”; 6) Strengthen management and excellent service, deepen cooperation and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. In addition, Previously, Xijiu said that it would achieve the sales target of “double 10 billion” by 2025 (the revenue CAGR from 2020 to 2025 is about 20%). We believe that the previous sauce and wine fever was mainly “channel fever” (dealers’ willingness to store sauce and wine), and the current “channel fever” It has begun to subside obviously, but the continuation of consumption fever will continue to promote the simultaneous rise of volume and price in the sauce and wine industry. Sauce and wine is still one of the fastest developing categories in the future, and sauce and wine will become the main beneficiary of the expansion of the 1000 yuan price band. Under this background, the performance of a number of high-quality sauce and wine enterprises such as Xijiu is expected to usher in a continuous breakthrough.
22 year Baijiu investment strategy: five cycle theory as the key link, and three main investment lines.
[highlights] the “five cycle theory” reconstructs the investment framework and seeks the main line of dynamic investment under the bull structure
First, restructure the Baijiu investment framework: the five cycle theory.
Different from the market, we first created the “five cycle theory” of Baijiu investment framework, including the expected indicators of equity incentive, which were analyzed from the perspective of economy / industry / product / entrepreneur / industry cycle.
1) the Baijiu industry is still in a weak stage of cyclical economy.
2) The life cycle of large single products of high-end wine continues to extend, but the requirements for the marketing system are higher; Regional wine wide product line strategy is conducive to undertaking echelon consumption upgrading; Whether the national sub high-end liquor can break through the focus of 10 billion, the expansion of the main sales market / the upward movement of the product structure;
3) In the era of weak cycle, the importance of decision-makers to enterprise development has become increasingly prominent, and the change of management / the reform of salary mechanism / the implementation of incentive policies are all catalytic.
[Conclusion] investment observation points are increasing, and the differentiation of Baijiu liquor industry is increasing, and the evolution of competition pattern will also accelerate.
2、 Grasp the trend: continuation β Exchange for investment α The market trend continues
Different from the market, we believe that “the hot sauce and wine channels cool down, but the consumption fever continues”, “deep cultivation, large capacity and strong open areas are the key points to seize more shares in nationalization”. In addition: 1) the plate will continue from β Investment switching to α Type investment; 2) In terms of stock selection mode, it is necessary to “dynamically” select stocks.
3、 Investment suggestions: grasp the three “dynamic” investment mainlines and grasp the logic of “catalyst mainline”
In the short term: firmly optimistic about the Spring Festival stock market, it is expected that some liquor enterprises in 22q1 will meet the double-digit high and make a good start. From top to bottom, we are firmly optimistic about the logic of both attack and Defense & catalyzing the high-end wine being gradually realized, with Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) being the first; From the bottom up, we first recommend 22 years of high elasticity & high certainty, which is expected to usher in Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and so on.
In the medium and long term: 1. Grasp the investment opportunities benefiting from the trend, that is, select high-end wine labels “from top to bottom”, first Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ; 2. Grasp the structural opportunity, that is, strictly select the main logic of “bottom-up” high profit elasticity & non high-end wine label with cost-effective valuation. From the perspective of robustness elasticity, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) are recommended; From the perspective of high elasticity, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Laobaigan are recommended.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating performance this week is stable and the overall inventory performance is healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles is about 2600-2700 yuan, and the wholesale price of the whole box is about 3500-3580. Recently, the company has allocated 600-800 tons of pumao with 1479 yuan to dealers in preparation for the Spring Festival. It is expected that the subsequent pumao wholesale price will continue to develop steadily; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the wholesale price began to stop falling and rise this week, gradually rising from 950 in the early stage to 970 yuan. The wholesale price of classic clothes is about 1700-1800 yuan. Since the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , contracts are being signed in the coming year. It is expected that 20% of the payment will be collected before 1218 and 40% before the Spring Festival; Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the rated price is about 900-910 yuan. The payment collection of Guojiao in 21 years has been completed (+ 35%), and the growth target of Guojiao next year is 30%. The overall performance of the rated price is stable.
Investment suggestions: Baijiu Spring Festival stocking market, it is recommended to increase the intensity of plate allocation.
We suggest to strengthen the plate allocation, the main reasons are as follows: 1) catalyst: the potential catalyst of the plate in December and the transmission of positive goal planning for the dealer Conference & volume and price strategy adjustment & potential equity incentive Landing & Channel Spring Festival stock performance, etc. at present, the intensive catalyst has begun to be realized gradually, and we are firmly optimistic about the Spring Festival stock market. It is expected that some liquor enterprises in 22q1 will welcome a high double-digit start; 2) Macro environment: steady growth is good for plate development.
[Conclusion] from top to bottom, we are firmly optimistic about the logic of both attack and Defense & catalyzing the gradual realization of high-end wine, with Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ; From the bottom up, we first recommend 22 years of high elasticity & high certainty, which is expected to usher in Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and so on. Pay attention to Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) .
