Key investment points:
Event: the central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. In this conference, “steady growth” became a high-frequency keyword. The meeting stressed that next year’s economy should be “stable”, strive for progress in stability, and achieve “six stabilities and six guarantees”. The meeting made it clear that “we should implement an active fiscal policy” and “moderately carry out advanced infrastructure investment”, and stressed the coordination and linkage of “finance” and “currency”.
New and old infrastructure is expected to actively boost the demand for non-ferrous metals. The statements on “accelerating the progress of expenditure” and “moderately ahead of infrastructure investment” in this meeting may mean that infrastructure investment, as the main starting point of positive finance, is expected to speed up. In the future, at least in the first half of the year, the policy will show a combination of fiscal + monetary loosening, and the joint efforts of ministries, commissions and local policies are expected to promote economic recovery beyond expectations. It is expected that the growth rate of traditional infrastructure will be about 5% next year, and the new infrastructure field will maintain a higher growth rate. For the non-ferrous metal industry chain, it is expected that with the continuous convergence of the subsequent scissors difference between ppi-cpi, the profit distribution of the industry chain will be further balanced and transferred from the resource end to the processing and manufacturing end.
The end of the real estate policy has been realized, and the completion indicators continue to be repaired. The meeting still adheres to the positioning of “real estate, housing and non speculation”, but emphasizes “strengthening expected guidance” to meet the reasonable housing mortgage loan demand of residents and the development loan and M & a loan demand of real estate enterprises, which will be conducive to the benign and healthy development of real estate. Although the growth rate of real estate investment may still be negative next year, the end of real estate policy has been realized. With the promotion of loose policy, it is expected that the completion index of real estate will continue to be repaired, which is expected to drive the recovery of demand for basic metals such as aluminum.
The policy is favorable for the development of recycled copper aluminum and hydropower aluminum. The meeting proposed to unswervingly promote carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, exclude the use of new renewable energy and raw materials from the total energy consumption control, realize the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, encourage the use and consumption of more renewable energy, and ensure the implementation of renewable energy power contracts. It is expected that hydropower should also be included in this scope next year. When carbon trading is more common, renewable energy power generation enterprises will obtain a certain premium / profit; The meeting proposed to accelerate the construction of waste recycling system and directly benefit the low-carbon and green recycled copper and aluminum plate.
Investment suggestion: from the perspective of downstream demand, about 1 / 3 of the downstream demand for copper is distributed in traditional infrastructure related fields, and more than 50% of the downstream demand for aluminum is distributed in infrastructure and real estate fields. New infrastructure, including 5g, new energy vehicles, UHV, photovoltaic, wind power and other fields, will significantly drive the demand for copper and aluminum. In the environment of steady growth, with the development of infrastructure and the stabilization of real estate, the copper aluminum plate has ushered in a good opportunity for bottom layout. It is suggested to focus on the leading enterprises at the processing end of copper foil and electromagnetic wire in the copper plate, and the enterprises of plate, strip foil and aluminum template in the aluminum plate; Meanwhile, with the establishment of double control of carbon emission intensity under carbon neutralization and circular economy system, Renewable Copper and aluminum enterprises will welcome the development opportunity. It is suggested to pay attention to Renewable Copper and aluminum and hydropower aluminum leading enterprises.
Risk tip: the growth rate of metal demand is lower than expected, and the implementation of policies is lower than expected.
