In the first three quarters of 2021, the securities industry realized an operating revenue of 366.357 billion yuan and a net profit of 143.979 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.00% and 8.51% respectively. The growth rate decreased significantly compared with the same period in 2020 and 2019. After the rapid development in 2019 and 2020, the securities industry has entered a relatively gentle development stage.
One of the major events in China's capital market in 2021 was the opening of the Beijing stock exchange. It took only more than two months from the announcement of its establishment to the opening of the market, highlighting the high-level hope for the service of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises of the Beijing stock exchange, China's determination to improve the construction of the multi-level system of the capital market, and in the face of the epidemic situation and the sharp increase in the uncertainty of China US relations, China has a clear understanding of breaking the situation with high-quality development and innovative development. "Registration system", "legal system" and "protecting the interests of investors" have become high-frequency words of supervision.
On September 1, 2021, the peak of single day turnover in 2021 was set, and the total turnover of the whole day was 1.71 trillion yuan. The "trillion" standard, which used to be regarded as the high point of transaction volume, has been repeatedly reached this year. So far, 126 transaction days have exceeded "trillion", while in 2020, only 48 transaction days have exceeded "trillion", and in 2019, only 12 transaction days have exceeded "trillion".
Under the influence of the high base of stocks and corporate bonds from 2019 to 2021, it is expected that the investment banking business may change slightly in 2022. The release of incremental business brought by the reform of Beijing stock exchange and registration system may take time, which is difficult to bring significant incremental opportunities to investment banks in 2022. From 2016 to 2018, the underwriting amount of securities companies' stocks and bonds CR10 increased rapidly. Since 2018, the underwriting amount of stocks CR10 has decreased slightly, and the underwriting amount of bonds CR10 has remained stable. Although the improvement of CR10 has slowed down, it is difficult to change the situation of "the strong is always strong".
In order to avoid the impact of market fluctuations on proprietary income, more and more securities companies take "de directionality" as the development direction of proprietary investment. In order to achieve the purpose of "de directionality", subjective unilateral trading behavior is less and less. Adopting quantitative strategies, hedging transactions and providing market making services have become the common path for the transformation of head securities companies. Whether quantitative, hedging or market making, the requirements for talents, equipment and capital of securities companies are very high. Head securities companies will be much smoother on the road of transformation than small and medium-sized securities companies.
When selecting individual stocks according to the characteristics of the current industry competition pattern, there will be the following two configuration logics: one is to select the head securities companies that occupy an advantageous position in the competition; the other is to follow the logic of industry evolution and development and tap the high-quality securities companies with first mover and unique advantages in the fields of financial technology and wealth management.
Risk warning: the overall macroeconomic situation is downward; The industry profit is less than expected; The company's performance growth does not meet expectations; Tightening of regulatory policies; The promotion of reform policies is less than expected; Systemic risks in foreign markets; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The epidemic situation outside China worsened;
