Aviation Industry Development Research Center: China’s shipping market has become the fastest recovering and best operating aviation market in the world
On December 10, 2021, the Aviation Industry Development Center released the annual report of civil aircraft market forecast in China (2021 ~ 2040) and the annual report of general aviation market forecast in China (2021 ~ 2040).
China’s civil aviation transportation industry will resume stable growth: in the first half of 2021, China’s civil aviation transportation industry will continue to be stable and good, and the overall recovery is in line with expectations. From a long-term perspective, China’s air passenger turnover will maintain a rapid growth. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2040, China will need to supplement 7646 civil airliners, including 1561 wide body airliners, 5276 narrow body airliners and 809 regional airliners. In the next 20 years, the average annual growth rate of China’s cargo and mail turnover will be 7.3%. By 2040, the scale of cargo aircraft fleet will reach 650, including 157 large cargo aircraft, 197 medium-sized wide body cargo aircraft and 296 small cargo aircraft.
The general aviation market is growing against the trend and has great room for development: it is expected that by 2025, the number of general aviation aircraft in China will reach 5343, and by 2040, the number of general aviation aircraft in China will be close to 45000, including more than 10000 civil helicopter fleet, more than 25000 piston general aircraft fleet, and China’s navigation flight time will exceed 8 million hours.
The total market demand for regional airliners remains stable: in the regional jet airliner market, 61 ~ 100 seat regional jet airliners are the mainstream models, while large seat regional jet airliners can provide airlines with the choice of optimal power. It is estimated that in the next 20 years, the demand for 30 ~ 60 seat and 61 ~ 100 seat regional jet airliners will be 200 and 3320 respectively, and the demand for 30 ~ 60 seat and 61 ~ 100 seat turboprop aircraft will be 500 and 2100 respectively.
Civil Aviation Administration: the 14th five year plan will strongly support domestic civil aircraft, and the commercialization process of domestic aircraft will be accelerated. On October 15 last year, the Civil Aviation Administration went to COMAC for investigation and pointed out that the Civil Aviation Administration is actively investigating and preparing the 14th five year plan, and will continue to vigorously support domestic civil aircraft during the 14th five year plan. CAAC will further mobilize the enthusiasm of airlines to operate domestic civil aircraft, guide the airport to further improve the support capacity of domestic civil aircraft, further improve the airworthiness certification capacity of domestic civil aircraft, promote the in-depth integration of civil aircraft manufacturing and civil aviation operation, and further make domestic civil aircraft have commercial use value.
The commercialization process of domestic aircraft will be accelerated: the cumulative delivery of ARJ21 will reach 100 in 2021. At the same time, we judge that C919 aircraft is in the final key period of airworthiness certification and delivery for commercial operation, and cr929 wide body aircraft will be manufactured. On March 1, 2021, China Eastern Airlines and COMAC officially signed a purchase contract for C919 large passenger aircraft in Shanghai, introducing five of the first batch. China Eastern Airlines will become the first airline in the world to operate C919 large passenger aircraft. This signing marks the beginning of the era of commercial operation of domestic large aircraft and opens a new chapter in the cause of domestic civil aircraft.
We believe that China’s commercial aircraft market has become the world’s most important civil aviation passenger and freight market. At present, the civil aircraft market is mainly monopolized by Boeing and Airbus. If China’s domestic civil aircraft can enter this market, the listed companies related to the industrial chain will fully benefit from this broad market space.
COMAC suppliers: focus on existing 1 / 2 / 3 Chinese suppliers + focus on potential suppliers with high flexibility
At present, COMAC has trained and rated a series of suppliers from outside China, among which the suppliers controlled or participated by Chinese listed companies / listed companies include fuselage, avionics / Electromechanical, material machining, metal / non-metal special materials and other enterprises:
Class I suppliers: Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avicopter Plc(600038) (two companies), Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) (three companies), Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) (one company), Sichuan Jiuzhou Electronic Co.Ltd(000801)
Class II supplier: China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) (one of its companies)
Level III suppliers: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) (2 companies), China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) (1 company), Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Yinbang Clad Material Co.Ltd(300337) (1 company)
In addition to the above enterprises that have entered COMAC’s supply chain, China’s aviation industry chain also has a series of related supporting enterprises, which can be paid attention to:
Brake system: Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) (brake disc and landing gear), Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) (landing gear processing supplier)
Non metallic materials: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) (for reference), Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) (for reference)
Fuselage section: Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) (civil aircraft supplier of Chengdu Airlines)
For the domestic engine cj1000 developed for C919 aircraft, all designs of the verification machine have been completed. In the process of testing and tackling key problems, the relevant supporting enterprises can pay attention to:
Metal materials: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034)
Supporting processing: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) , Wedge Industrial Co.Ltd(000534)
Parts matching: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738)
Risk tip: the progress of domestic large aircraft project is lower than expected, the operation and delivery rhythm of COMAC industrial chain is lower than expected, foreign suppliers are unstable, and the supporting construction of trunk passenger aircraft maintenance system of civil aviation of China is insufficient.
