Since July, the year-on-year decline in monthly sales of commercial housing in China has shown an expanding trend. Since July 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of monthly sales of commercial housing in China has turned negative, and the decline is expanding, with a decline of 22.6% in October. Although the regulators have made relatively positive statements since October, the cumulative sales of Kerry Rui in November was the top 100, and the year-on-year decline in the total sales of real estate enterprises in a single month further expanded. This paper attempts to explore the impact of changes in monetary policy and industry regulation on sales trends by resuming the past several rounds of industry sales recovery.
2012: loose money and credit, active adjustment of multi regional policies and house price adjustment jointly boosted industry sales. 1) Multiple RRR and interest rate cuts released Liquidity: the RRR was lowered three times in December 2011, February 2012 and may 2012, and the mortgage interest rate continued to drop from 7.62% in Q4 in 2011 to 6.20% in Q3 in 2012. 2) Many local policies have been actively adjusted: many cities such as Nanjing and Xiamen have relaxed the provident fund loan policy, Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed the standard of ordinary housing, and Yangzhou and other places have issued subsidies to qualified buyers. 3) House price adjustment: some real estate enterprises recovered their funds through price reduction and promotion. The average price of sample houses in 100 cities continued to decline from 9827 yuan / ping in September 2011 to 9523 yuan / ping in May 2012, which boosted the demand for house purchase to a certain extent. Under the influence of comprehensive factors, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of national commercial housing sales was positive in June 2012, about 2 quarters from the first reduction of reserve requirement and the decline of housing loan interest rate, and about 2-3 quarters from the adjustment of local policies.
2015: the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates was strong, the industrial policies were significantly improved, and the sales volume and price rose together. 1) Multiple RRR and interest rate cuts: in 2015, the central bank cut the RRR and interest rates four times and five times, and the interest rate of personal housing loans fell rapidly from 6.96% in Q3 in 2014 to 4.70% in Q4 in 2015. 2) Since the middle of 2014, the industrial policies have been significantly improved: since June 2014, the purchase restrictions in second tier cities have been basically fully liberalized, the recognition standard of the first house has been relaxed in the 930 new deal, and the down payment ratio of the second house has been reduced in the 330 New Deal in 2015, which has significantly boosted the real estate market. Since April 2015, the monthly sales growth rate of commercial housing in China has returned to positive, and the sales price of the industry has risen simultaneously. It is about 10 months since the relaxation of purchase restrictions in mid-2014, about 2-3 quarters since the 930 new deal, about 2 quarters since the decline of housing loan interest rate, and about 1 month since the first reduction of reserve requirement and interest rate in 2015.
2018 and 2020: the liquidity environment is relatively loose, the industry regulation is tightening, and the improvement range of industry sales is relatively limited. Industrial policy regulation may hedge the positive impact of loose monetary policy on industrial sales to a certain extent. The year-on-year growth rate of single month sales in May and July 2018 was significantly increased due to the two RRR reductions in late April and early July 2018, but the increase in industry regulation in the middle of the year led to a rapid decline in sales growth; In October 2018, the reserve requirement was lowered for the third time, and some cities issued policies to relax price limits and sales restrictions. Since November, the monthly growth rate of national commercial housing sales has rebounded significantly. Similarly, after the epidemic in 2020, the liquidity environment was relatively loose, but the industrial policies remained tight. The year-on-year growth rate of annual cumulative sales of commercial housing was only about 2.2pct higher than that in 2019.
Industry sales are expected to recover from Q1 to Q2 in 2022. The resolution of industry risks may affect the progress of industry sales recovery. 1) In terms of policy mix, Recently, the liquidity environment has improved (RRR reduction, acceleration of industry credit supply), and the industry tone is relatively stable (the top-level has repeatedly expressed a relatively positive attitude), the improvement of liquidity is expected to be smoothly transmitted to the improvement of industry transactions; according to the recovery time point in 2012 and 2015, the industry sales are expected to recover in Q2 in 2022. 2) from the situation of the second-hand housing market, the number of second-hand housing transactions in many first and second tier cities rebounded month on month in November, while the second-hand housing in key cities was about ahead of the new housing in 2012 and 2015 The market recovered from Q1 to Q2, and it is estimated that the industry sales are expected to recover from Q1 to Q2 in 2022. In addition, the loss of buyers' confidence in project delivery is one of the important reasons for the current round of sales decline. Therefore, the resolution of industrial risks and the recovery of buyers' confidence may have a certain impact on the progress of industrial sales recovery.
Risk warning: there is uncertainty in the control policy and epidemic prevention and control policy; The company's sales settlement may fluctuate.
