Key investment points
Industry prosperity tracking: the shortage of chips continues to ease, and the industry replenishes the library seasonally. The criteria of the passenger Federation: the output of narrow passenger cars reached 2.229 million (YoY - 2.1%, mom + 13.9%), and the wholesale sales reached 2.15 million (YoY - 5.1%, mom + 8.9%), which was slightly lower than our expectation (the monthly report of last month expected + 15%). The criteria of traffic compulsory insurance: the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in November reached 1.6973 million (YoY - 12.30%, mom + 4.67%), which was lower than our expectation (expected retail sales in last month's monthly report is expected to be + 18% month on month). CAAC caliber: in November, the total production and sales of passenger cars were 223.1/2.92 million respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 4.3% / - 4.7% and a month on month ratio of + 12.2% / + 9.2%. In terms of export, CAAC caliber passenger cars exported 170000, with a year-on-year ratio of + 71.2% and a month on month ratio of - 14.1%, including 35000 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year ratio of + 194.4% and a month on month ratio of - 40.9% Looking forward to December 2021: we expect that the overall production batch of the passenger car industry will be + 8% / + 13% month on month, and the corresponding year-on-year will be + 4.71% / + 4.99% respectively. Among them, the wholesale of new energy is expected to be about 500000 units, with a month on month ratio of + 16.55%. In the retail industry, we expect December to be + 45.5% month on month, corresponding to - 3.80% year-on-year; The export is expected to be about 180000 units, corresponding to the same month on month ratio of + 55.17% / + 5.88% respectively.
New energy tracking: in November, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased slightly, and the new energy market as a whole continued to be hot. By the union caliber, In November, the output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 435000 (year-on-year + 147.2%, month on month + 16.5%), the wholesale sales reached 429000 (year-on-year + 131.7%, month on month + 17.9%), and the performance was better than our expectation (the wholesale expected in the monthly report of last month was 400000). The retail sales of new energy with strong traffic insurance caliber reached 366100 (YoY + 104.26%, mom + 25.33%). The new energy penetration rate of passenger car wholesale industry is 19.95%, mom + 1.35pct. Looking forward to December 2021: we expect to wholesale about 500000 new energy units (month on month + 17%). In terms of regions, the sales volume in non restricted areas accounted for -0.84pct month on month, with a slight decline. In terms of price bands, the sales volume of new energy vehicles above 200000 yuan accounted for + 8.57pct month on month in November. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles was analyzed by price bands. In November, except that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the price range of 250000-300000 yuan decreased by 1.05pct month on month, the penetration rates in other price ranges were all higher Than up. Tracking level of market share of independent brands: in November, the market share of independent brands of passenger cars was 46.91%, mom -0.9pct; The market share of independent brands in SUV / car market increased from - 1.3pct / + 0.1pct to 55.8% / 35.8% month on month respectively; The market share of independent brands in EV / PHEV market was - 5.2pct / + 1.0pct to 81.48% / 79.20% month on month respectively.
On the aspect of order inquiry data of key models: 1) for new energy models, from the perspective of month on month growth, the order inquiry volume of Weilai ec6, Great Wall Euler good cat and Weilai ES6 performed well in November. From the perspective of absolute value, the order inquiry volume of Hongguang mini and Euler black cat was the highest in November. 2) In terms of fuel models, from the perspective of month on month growth, GAC motor GS4 and Chang'an uni-k performed well in November. From the perspective of absolute value, Chang'an cs75 plus and great wall Haval H6 performed well.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment in the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands are listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts and components recommend [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pay attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeds expectations; The price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
