Event: the central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The meeting summarized the economic work in 2021, analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work in 2022. This year's meeting paid special attention to the work of "double carbon" and energy, carried out key discussions, and pointed out the direction for policy formulation and industry development in the next stage.
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The annual central economic work conference plays a very important role in studying and judging the macroeconomic situation and policy guidance. The overall length of the central economic work conference on energy is far higher than that of last year and the year before last. Through the comparative analysis of "double carbon", energy and "double control" policies in previous years and this year, the overall tone of this meeting lies in "three corrections + one set tone", one is to correct the deviation of the early campaign carbon reduction, the other is to correct the deviation that is not based on China's coal dominated national conditions, and the third is to correct the deviation of unreasonable energy control in the early stage, Setting the tone is to correctly understand and grasp China's energy situation and promote double carbon work. From the perspective of investment opportunities, focus on three directions: first, coal Modern coal chemical industry (output of raw materials) and coal power; the second is the key areas conducive to the consumption of new energy, focusing on the new power system, including distribution network investment, thermal power flexibility transformation, energy storage, power grid transformation, demand side response, etc.; the third is the fields of clean and efficient utilization of coal, negative carbon technology, green hydrogen, etc. in terms of risk, pay attention to avoiding the related fields that were over expected in the early stage under the background of double carbon , and the specific areas involved in deviation correction.
1. It is emphasized that we should correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and the "double carbon" work cannot be completed in one battle
Compared with the requirements of the central economic work conference for "double carbon" work in the past two years, last year was to set goals and put forward requirements, and this year is to control the direction and rhythm. Since this year, all localities and departments have earnestly implemented the requirements of the general secretary and taken positive actions. The carbon peak and carbon neutralization work have been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the social response has been strong, and remarkable results have been achieved. However, some localities and departments did not well grasp the law and rhythm of "double carbon" work, and there were signs of a rush to a certain extent. In this regard, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 put forward the requirement of correcting the campaign "carbon reduction" and establishing first and then breaking. We believe that this is actually a clear warning and correction of unrealistic actions beyond the current stage of development. This meeting proposed for the first time that the "double carbon" work can not be completed in one battle. In fact, it once again stressed that the "double carbon" work can not be done in a hurry, and can not complete all the things that should be done by stages through one action. It needs to be done step by step. At the same time, the working principles proposed in the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization are emphasized, that is, the principle of "national overall planning, saving priority, two wheel drive, internal and external unimpeded and risk prevention".
2. It is emphasized to promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy based on the basic national conditions of coal
Compared with the requirements of the central economic work conference on the development of coal and new energy in the past two years, it is obvious that energy security and reliability are still the prerequisite for energy transformation. This meeting emphasized the basic position of coal in China's energy and put "clean and efficient utilization of coal" in a more prominent position. The formulation of new energy is very accurate, What is required to be added is "consumption capacity" (mainly corresponding to the construction of new power system) to promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
In fact, since the second half of this year, the top management has emphasized the status and role of coal and the development direction under the "double carbon" goal on different occasions:
On September 13, Xi Jinping General Secretary stressed during his inspection in Yulin, Shaanxi that Yulin is an important national energy base and has made important contributions to the national economic and social development. As China's main energy, coal should follow the development direction of green and low-carbon, achieve the goals and tasks of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, based on the national conditions, control the total amount, grasp the bottom line, orderly reduce and replace, and promote the transformation and upgrading of coal consumption. The coal chemical industry has great potential and prospects. It is necessary to improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of coal as chemical raw materials, promote the high-end, diversified and low-carbon development of coal chemical industry, take strengthening scientific and technological innovation as the most urgent task, speed up the key core technology research, and actively develop coal-based special fuels and coal-based biodegradable materials.
On November 17, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the national standing committee meeting and decided to set up a special refinancing of 200 billion yuan to support the clean and efficient utilization of coal and promote green and low-carbon development. The meeting pointed out that China's energy resource endowment is mainly coal, so we should focus on improving the clean and efficient utilization level of coal from the actual situation of China's national conditions, and accelerate the promotion of the commercial application of mature technologies.
The reference to increasing the consumption capacity of new energy, rather than the vigorous development of new energy last year, actually indicates that new energy has entered a development stage that is more difficult to consume in a relatively low proportion period. With the gradual increase of the proportion of new energy in the energy and power structure, now with more than 10% of the electricity, it has entered a stage of rapid increase in system cost. The attributes of intermittency, volatility, unpredictability and low energy density determine that its development will be subject to external conditions, i.e. flexible resources and related power systems, Therefore, the focus of new energy development in the next stage lies in distribution network investment, power side flexibility transformation, energy storage, power grid transformation, demand side response, etc., which are related to increasing the consumption capacity of new energy. The capital market needs to pay close attention to it in the future.
3. For the first time, the energy consumption of raw materials will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and the "double control" of energy consumption will change to "double control" of carbon
At this meeting, it was proposed to make scientific assessment that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control. The former, that is, "the new renewable energy should not be included in the total energy consumption control", was actually put forward at the national regular meeting on October 8. The previous requirement was to improve the dual control mechanism of local energy consumption, Promote new renewable energy consumption to be excluded from the total energy consumption within a certain period of time. It is worth noting that the latter "energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control" is proposed for the first time. The so-called "raw material energy consumption" mainly refers to the industrial fields such as coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry. It refers to the conversion of coal, oil and natural gas into raw materials, such as coal olefins, coal to methanol, petroleum to rubber and fiber. However, the energy consumption for fuel in the process is still included in the total energy consumption control.
For a long time, raw material energy consumption has been included in the total energy consumption control. With the rapid development of modern coal chemical industry and petroleum refining and the tightening of China's energy consumption situation in recent two years, the industry is more and more subject to the "dual control" policy of energy. The industry itself also has the demand to distinguish between raw material and fuel energy consumption from the perspective of energy consumption. In fact, from the perspective of carbon emission, 100% of energy consumption does not emit carbon dioxide into the air, Generally, only 20% (emissions), 80% of which are converted into fixed raw materials. Therefore, in the context of "double carbon" and from the perspective of carbon emission control, it is very reasonable to eliminate raw material energy consumption in the total energy consumption control, which is also conducive to providing greater development space for relevant industries and meeting the needs of economic and social development.
However, it should be noted that the meeting only expressed that the energy consumption of raw materials will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and it was not clear whether it will be included in the intensity control. This issue deserves attention under the current "double control" orientation of new energy dominated by intensity and supplemented by total energy, In addition, how to completely and accurately identify the energy consumption of raw materials (and whether it is also for new addition) also needs to be clarified in further detailed documents.
The meeting also proposed for the first time to create conditions to realize the transformation from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. The "dual control" of energy consumption originated in 2015. It has evolved from the initial "dual control system of total energy consumption and intensity" to today's "dual control system of energy consumption intensity and total amount". In fact, it gives more flexibility to the total amount while tightening the intensity indicators, including the fact that the new renewable energy and raw material energy mentioned above are not included in the total energy consumption control. As for why it is necessary to create conditions to realize as soon as possible, in short: the CO2 emissions from energy activities account for about 90% of the total CO2 emissions. Therefore, the "double control" of energy consumption in a certain stage can be equivalent to the "double control" of carbon. Moreover, China's "double control" of energy consumption has a foundation, conditions and is constantly improving. In contrast, the foundation and conditions of "double control" of carbon are still relatively weak, However, considering that new energy accounts for an increasing proportion in the energy consumption structure, its consumption process does not produce carbon emissions, and the energy consumption fixed in raw materials does not produce carbon emissions. From the perspective of more accurately promoting double carbon work and encouraging the development of new energy, It is very necessary to create conditions to realize the "double control" of energy consumption to the "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. In addition, the meeting also proposed: we should pay close attention to tackling key problems of green and low-carbon technology. To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stable prices. We should further promote the energy revolution and accelerate the construction of an energy power.
In short, as the annual central economic work conference, its importance is self-evident. The latest spirit of the conference on China's "double carbon" and energy will be directly related to the direction and focus of relevant work in a certain period of time in the future. From the proposal of the "double carbon" goal last year to the promulgation of the "1 + n" top-level design this year, and then to the setting tone of the latest central economic work conference, it can be said that the idea of "double carbon" work has become clearer and clearer. The "three rectifications + one tone" summarized by us is expected to be reflected in the next specific policies. At the same time, it is believed that it will also be the key direction of the country for "double carbon", energy, coal, new energy and "double control" next year. The development of any work should respect the law, handle all kinds of relations, and grasp the rhythm scientifically. Only on the premise of implementing the established policies and principles put forward by the Central Committee and scientifically understanding the "double carbon" problem can we have a definite aim and make due contributions to the realization of the "double carbon" goal. From the perspective of investment opportunities, focus on three directions: first, coal Modern coal chemical industry (output of raw materials) and coal power. The second is the key areas conducive to the consumption of new energy, focusing on the new power system, including distribution network investment, thermal power flexibility transformation, energy storage, power grid transformation, demand side response, etc. the third is the fields of clean and efficient utilization of coal, negative carbon technology, green hydrogen, etc. in terms of risk, pay attention to avoiding the related fields that were over expected in the early stage under the background of double carbon , and the specific areas involved in deviation correction.
Risk factors: the implementation of the policy is less than expected.
