Core view
1. The demand is boosted, and the carbon black price is expected to remain high. The overall price of carbon black rose this year. As of December 12, the average market price of carbon black n660 was 9500 yuan / ton, up 23.4% compared with the beginning of the year and 28.4% year-on-year. The rise of carbon black price mainly depends on the following three factors: 1) the increase of raw material cost. Carbon black raw materials are mainly coal and crude oil, of which China is mainly coal. Coal tar is one of the main raw materials for carbon black production. The price of coal tar increased by 71.0% compared with the beginning of the year. The rising price of raw materials has increased the production cost of carbon black. Driven by the cost pressure, the price of carbon black continues to rise. 2) The prosperity of the downstream automobile industry recovered. The downstream of carbon black is mainly the tire and automobile industry. With China’s economic recovery this year, national manufacturing production has maintained an upward momentum. As of November this year, China’s automobile production had increased by 3.5% year-on-year. The increase in automobile production is mainly due to the sharp rise in demand for new energy vehicles. From January to November this year, the total Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile output increased by 180.5% year-on-year. The recovery of the prosperity of the automobile industry has led to the rise of carbon black prices. 3) The export volume and price of carbon black increased simultaneously. China is an exporter of carbon black. This year, the total export of carbon black accounted for 15.2% of the apparent consumption. As of October this year, the export volume of carbon black had reached 615000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. The average export price was USD 1264.4/t, an increase of 47.1% compared with the average price of USD 859.3/t last year. The rise of carbon black export volume and export price has played a supporting role in the rise of carbon black price in China. With the global economic recovery and the recovery of downstream prosperity, the demand for automobile tires and export demand are boosted at the same time, and the price of carbon black is expected to remain high.
2. China’s chemical price index CCPI fell 0.5%, of which the mainstream price of xylene market rose 5.4% and butadiene fell 13.6%. Xylene rose slightly last week, with an increase of 5.4%. The rise was mainly due to the overall rebound of crude oil, which was good for related commodities; In addition, xylene rose slightly in the international market, boosting the Chinese market. In terms of butadiene, the decline was mainly due to the abundant spot supply of butadiene in China and the relatively high inventory. At the same time, the price of downstream synthetic rubber fell, driving the price of butadiene down.
3. Last week, the international crude oil price rebounded, the settlement price of Brent crude oil main continuous futures rose by 7.5%, and the settlement price of WTI crude oil main continuous futures rose by 8.2%. On the one hand, the market’s concerns about Omicron mutant virus continued to ease, supporting the rebound in oil prices. On the other hand, Iran’s nuclear negotiations have stalled, Iran’s crude oil export prospects are unclear, and EIA crude oil inventories have decreased slightly. At the same time, Saudi Arabia raised the official sales price of crude oil supplied to Asia and the United States last week, resulting in an upward shock in international oil prices.
4. Market review. Last week, 13 of the 31 Shenwan chemical tertiary industries rose or remained flat last week, and 18 fell. Among them, the potassium fertilizer sector increased the most, reaching 12.2%; The plate with the largest decline was carbon black, with a decline of 5.1%. In terms of individual stocks, the top three gainers were Zhejiang Oceanking Development Co.Ltd(603213) , Shanghai Nar Industrial Co.Ltd(002825) , Yueyang Xingchang Petro-Chemical Co.Ltd(000819) , with weekly gains of 40.3%, 31.6% and 22.7% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) and HuaSu shares, with weekly declines of 17.3%, 14.8% and 13.2% respectively.
Investment advice
The price of carbon black rose this year and is still at a high level. With the recovery of downstream prosperity, it is expected to maintain a high level in the future. Relevant targets of carbon black industry, such as Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , etc.
Risk statement
The international covid-19 epidemic worsened, the global economic recovery slowed down, and the volatility of the international crude oil market intensified.
