In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases in the world continues to rise. Superimposed on the upcoming Christmas, the prospect of epidemic control in Europe and the United States is not optimistic. In terms of economy, the Markit manufacturing PMI index of the United States further rebounded to 59.1% in November, and the manufacturing PMI index of the euro zone also increased slightly to 58.6% in the same period. While the supply capacity of the two major economies in Europe and the United States further improved, the inflationary pressure also continued to strengthen. The year-on-year growth rate of the core PCE price index of the United States increased to 4.12% in October, and the month on month growth rate of PPI in Germany further increased to 3.8% in the same period; High inflation continued to weaken the U.S. consumer confidence index. In November, the consumer expectation index of the University of Michigan fell to 63.5, a new low since the epidemic. However, personal consumption expenditure in October was still resilient. The expectation deviated from reality or was related to the rapid growth of the income of low - and middle-income groups. In terms of policy, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in November show that although members still expect the inflation pressure to weaken significantly in 2022, its uncertainty has increased. If the inflation level develops beyond expectations, the pace of monetary normalization will accelerate.
In terms of China's environment, in the data window period, policy has become the focus of attention in the near future. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report in the third quarter has become more cautious in judging the economic outlook. The deletion of the two expressions of "insisting on not engaging in flood irrigation" and "managing or general gate" has strengthened the market expectation of "wide currency" and "wide credit", The report also pointed out that "the adjustment of monetary policy in developed economies has limited impact on us", and policy regulation will still "focus on me", but the report pointed out in the form of a column that "the decline of excess reserve rate should not be used as an indicator of liquidity tightening". In general, although the demand for steady growth is strengthened, it is necessary to do a good job in the cross cyclical design of macro policies, compared with comprehensive policies, Innovative structural policy tools will remain the main force of monetary and credit regulation. At the same time, financial care has not been absent. This week, the national Standing Committee once again stressed accelerating the issuance of special bonds and the commencement of projects, and studied the early issuance of the quota in 2022. As vice premier Liu he emphasized in the article "we must achieve high-quality development", "macro stability has become a scarce resource", "we should always adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "achieve a long-term balance between steady growth and risk prevention". Therefore, in the face of the downward pressure of the economy, the demand for steady growth has been strengthened, However, for the purpose of "achieving a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention", the promotion of care policies may remain moderate and work slowly, and pay more attention to the innovation of macro-control ideas and methods.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions weakened slightly, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index fluctuated at a high level. In the middle reaches, steel prices rebounded and cement prices continued to fall. Upstream, coal prices hit the bottom and rebounded, non-ferrous metal prices stabilized and rebounded one after another, precious metal prices rose significantly, and crude oil prices continued to fall.
Risk tip: the development of international epidemic situation exceeded expectations
