Main points
Overseas inflation further rose, and the expectation of “raising interest rates” was divided. As global inflation continues to rise, the world’s major central banks are divided over whether to raise interest rates in the future. At present, the market has expectations for interest rate hikes by central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve of New Zealand, while the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve of Australia are trying to crack down on market expectations for interest rate hikes in these regions. In the United States, due to the advance of people’s holiday shopping season, although consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in 10 years due to concerns about the rising cost of living, the high inflation level has not restrained spending, mainly due to the strong stock market and house prices, as well as a large amount of savings and wage growth. The U.S. retail sales data released last week showed that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States recorded 1.7% in October, the highest since March this year. Although the total retail sales is much higher than the level before the epidemic, the collapse of consumer confidence caused by recent inflation may lead to a slowdown in demand in the future. Better than expected retail sales data boosted the market’s expectations of the Fed’s interest rate hike. Some officials, including Federal Reserve vice chairman Clarida and director Waller, have also recently released signals to accelerate the pace of debt reduction. Once the debt reduction is over, the Federal Reserve is bound to open the door to raising interest rates. In Europe, the latest CPI data in Britain soared again, more than doubling the central bank’s target, reaching a new high in a decade. Superimposed on the positive employment data, the unemployment rate fell, strengthening the expectation of UK interest rate hike. In Japan, in the third quarter, Japan’s real GDP fell by 0.8% month on month and 3% at an annual rate. Economic growth has “turned from positive to negative” again, shrinking more than expected, making it more difficult for Japan’s economic recovery. In response to the economic downturn, The Japanese government on Friday (November 19) decided to launch a new round of economic stimulus plan with a total scale of 78.9 trillion yen. European natural gas prices soared again because the approval process of Beixi No. 2 gas transmission pipeline from Russia was postponed, and the pipeline may not be put into use until March next year. The surge in global energy prices has been transmitted to inflation, although Lagarde of the European central bank admitted that The magnitude and duration of the surge in inflation will exceed expectations, but she tried her best to suppress the market’s expectation of the European Central Bank raising interest rates. Lagarde believes that inflation will subside next year. She also said that under the pressure of rising energy and fuel prices on purchasing power, it is not advisable to tighten financing conditions before the time is ripe, which will pose unnecessary resistance to economic recovery.
China’s currency is “stable”, the market is “survival of the fittest”, and the theme funds of the Beijing stock exchange are hot. The central bank issued the third quarter monetary policy implementation report, which stressed that the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, focus on me, take stability as the head, grasp the strength and rhythm of the policy, handle the relationship between economic development and risk prevention, make cross cycle adjustment, maintain the overall stability of the economy and enhance the resilience of economic development. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued guidelines on deduction of operating income to clarify the specific deduction items of operating income in financial delisting indicators, accurately crack down on shell companies, and strive to achieve “all refunds that should be refunded”. According to the new delisting regulations, after the disclosure of the annual report in 2021, if a listed company touches the “net profit + operating income” index for the first time, it will be warned of delisting risk. Companies that have been warned of delisting risk will be delisted directly if they continue to touch the delisting index in 2021. The first batch of eight Beijing stock exchange theme funds were sought after by the market on the first day of sale, sold out in only half a day, and finally ended the raising in advance after only one day of sale. According to the channel, the final eight funds raised about 17 billion yuan, of which huitianfu Beijing stock exchange theme fund received more than 5 billion yuan and Huaxia Fund received more than 3 billion yuan; Both e fund and Dacheng Fund have subscribed more than 2 billion yuan; The others attracted more than 1 billion yuan.
Investment advice
From the perspective of China’s economic situation abroad, the current supply and demand pattern will be improved, but it is still under pressure in the short term. It is expected that China’s inflation will fall before overseas; Whether the economy is unsealed from the covid-19 epidemic is still facing great uncertainty; The willingness of developed countries to raise interest rates after the contraction is differentiated. If inflation expectations are peaking, we can first determine the order of commodities and avoid varieties with rapid improvement in supply and demand pattern. Based on the analysis of risk premium model, the risk premium is near the historical center, and there is no obvious stock bond cost performance. From the perspective of tactical allocation of large categories of assets, it is expected that the order of asset allocation in China is: cash / debt > stocks > commodities.
Risk statement
Supervision continued to increase, the economy rebounded beyond expectations, inflation rose sharply, uncertainty in overseas markets increased, and the frequency of default events increased
