The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on relevant global industrial chains is continuously emerging. According to the reporter of Securities Daily, as the manufacturing center and important market of the automobile industry, multinational automobile enterprises including Volkswagen, Toyota, Renault Nissan and stellantis have set up factories in Russia. Affected by local conflicts, many multinational automobile manufacturers have decided to stop exporting vehicles to Russia, At the same time, the factories of multinational car companies in Ukraine have announced shutdown.
On March 2, General Motors announced the suspension of automobile exports to Russia. "There are risks in the company's supply chain and efforts are being made to mitigate potential risks to its business and employees," GM said in a statement. In addition to general motors, Volvo also said on March 1 that it would suspend the export of vehicles to Russia.
In addition, affected by the supply of parts in Ukraine, Volkswagen's two factories in Germany suspended the production of ID. series electric vehicles; Renault also suspended its production line in Russia this week. As of March 2, brands including Audi, Skoda, Porsche and Jaguar Land Rover have successively announced the suspension of delivery of new cars to the Russian market.
"The reason why the export of China's automobile industry has been difficult in recent years is that overseas target countries often encounter economic sanctions from Europe and the United States. Taking Iran as an example, after it was excluded from the international settlement system of the global Interbank Financial Telecommunication Association (Swift), China's export volume to Iran plunged by 99%, and the overall automobile export lost nearly 400000 vehicles / year, resulting in huge losses." Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, told reporters.
When asked whether China's auto exports to Russia would suffer losses similar to Iran, Cui Dongshu believed that there were uncertainties. "It should be better. After all, border trade and other flexible operations are our advantages." At the same time, he pointed out that auto enterprises should respond flexibly, protect their own interests and realize the balanced development of China's auto exports.
China's automobile export or new year impact
swift sanctions have a great impact on automobile trade
In terms of overseas exports, Chinese auto enterprises are making great strides. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in 2021, China's automobile export exceeded 2 million for the first time, reaching 2.015 million, accounting for 7.7% of the total automobile sales, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the previous year. In this regard, Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Association, said that due to the recovery of global automobile consumption, the transformation and upgrading of Chinese brands and other factors, China's automobile export growth is expected to be about 20% in 2022.
In fact, although Russia is not the most important overseas market for Chinese auto enterprises to export, it occupies an important position. According to the data compiled by the General Administration of Customs of China Automobile Association, in 2021, Russia ranked third in vehicle exports; In terms of export value, Russia ranks fourth.
The head of the overseas business department of an independent brand, who asked not to be named, told reporters that although it has no impact on key parts and automotive chip raw materials at present. However, with the upgrading of swift sanctions, it will inevitably affect the export of Chinese auto enterprises. "At present, more than 10 Chinese car companies have started business in Russia and Ukraine. Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chery and Geely have built factories in Russia with heavy money and achieved good sales." These people said.
According to the reporter, the United States and Europe imposed sanctions on Iran in 2018, and the impact of this measure is very serious. According to the data, China exported 360000 vehicles to Iran in 2017. After sanctions were taken in 2018, the export volume immediately decreased to 190000. From 2019 to 2021, export vehicles continued to operate at a low level, only 1524, 1797 and 2157 respectively.
"After Iran was kicked out of the swift system in 2018, China's automobile exports to Iran lost more than 99%, less than 1% before the sanctions. The export loss of 360000 vehicles is also the production and sales loss of nearly 2% of China's automobile production." Cui Dongshu said that the main increment of China's automobile exports in 2021 has shifted to Chile, Australia, Russia and other countries.
oil price rise, chip production reduction, factory shutdown
Russia Ukraine conflict may deeply disturb the recovery of the auto market
As we all know, today's automobile industry has evolved into a global industry. As the world's largest automobile market, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably invade Chinese automobile enterprises and Chinese automobile market.
The first is the rise in oil prices. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global oil prices soared, and China's refined oil prices rose accordingly. According to the rules of China's refined oil price adjustment, a new round of refined oil retail price adjustment window will open again at 24:00 on March 3. It is expected that the oil price increase will be the fourth increase in 2022.
In terms of export sales, according to the data released by the European Business Association, the sales volume of Chinese brands in Russia in 2021 was 115700, accounting for 7% of the Russian market. In terms of specific brands, Chinese auto enterprises with large sales volume in Russia and Ukraine are mainly Great Wall, Geely and Chery. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the sales of great wall, Chery and Geely in Russia reached 39100, 37100 and 24600 respectively in 2021.
So, what impact will the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have on independent car enterprises Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) Securities Department said that the production and sales of Russian factories have not been affected yet. However, the company admitted that the export business of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) to Ukraine will be affected in the short term.
According to industry analysis, since the previous conflict mainly occurred in Ukraine, it had little impact on the production and sales in Russia, but under the background of economic sanctions, the impact on the supply of key parts should not be underestimated. Renault's Russian branch said on February 25 that the company would shut down the Russian automobile assembly plant because of the shutdown and shortage of parts and transportation difficulties caused by strict border control; Finnish tire manufacturer Nuoji tire also said that it was transferring some key product lines out of Russia.
In terms of chip manufacturing, up to 70% of the global output of rare gas neon required for chip production comes from Ukraine, and Russia is an important producer of raw metal palladium. If the supply of the above raw materials is limited, it will directly lead to the reduction of chip production capacity and exacerbate the global core shortage crisis. In this regard, Cui Dongshu maintained an optimistic attitude: "at present, the rare gas inventory of global semiconductor companies has been in normal use for six months. Under the impact of the previous epidemic and other factors, the supply capacity of the industry has been greatly improved and improved, and most chip companies have built a diversified supply chain system, so the impact caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may not be so severe."
It is worth mentioning that for the automotive industry, which has suffered from the lack of "core" over the past year, many automotive enterprises that have benefited from their ability to penetrate the upstream of the supply chain (cooperating with primary suppliers of chip factories and wafer factories) are considering continuing to expand upstream and taking the risk of raw materials into account the risk of the supply chain, So as to further strengthen the anti risk ability of enterprises.
