The judgment and prediction of the financial situation should be combined with China's foreign economic situation, financial space, fiscal and tax system and structural changes. The difficulty of finance is that it is difficult to keep the rigid expenditure unchanged while the income increases, and the total expenditure expands at a faster speed, which is difficult to balance. What is the financial situation this year? Why has infrastructure investment failed to make progress? What kind of fiscal policy will be adopted next year? Can infrastructure support the bottom and play a role in hedging the downward pressure on the economy? This paper mainly answers the above questions.
1、 Brief review of financial situation and infrastructure investment in 2021
1. Progress and effect of fiscal revenue and expenditure: in 2021, fiscal revenue will recover, expenditure progress is slow, and the balance of fiscal deposits in the first 10 months is significantly higher than that in previous years by about 1.3 trillion yuan. The overall fiscal policy adheres to the principle of "improving quality, increasing efficiency and being more sustainable", which has effectively supported the consolidation of the economy, the promotion of scientific and technological innovation and the stability of employment. From January to October, the average growth rate of general public budget revenue in two years was 4%, higher than the level before the epidemic, mainly due to the sustained economic recovery and the sharp rise in commodity prices. The slow pace of fiscal expenditure from January to October is due to the overall recovery of the economy in the early stage, the relatively small pressure on steady growth, the phased tasks of risk prevention and structural adjustment, and sufficient fiscal space for cross cycle adjustment.
2. Overall financial situation: good figures and sad days. Weak and unbalanced economic recovery leads to high growth rate of general public budget revenue before and low growth rate after; When the real estate market was cold, the local auction volume and price fell together in the third quarter, superimposed on the ebb tide of debt this year (deficit reduction, no special treasury bonds were issued), resulting in the decline of the growth rate of local actual disposable financial resources and the increase of the pressure on "Three Guarantees" in some cities; the unsafe overall development, stable economic growth and people's livelihood led to the unabated rigid expenditure.
3. Mystery of low growth of infrastructure: under the background of tight fiscal balance, the capital side and project side show a situation of "three tight and one lack". First, fiscal expenditure is slow and inclined to the field of people's livelihood. The thing is that the progress of new and debt issuance is slow. Third, the supervision of implicit debt has become stricter, and the financing of urban investment platform has been tightened. On the project side, the traditional infrastructure is gradually saturated, there is a lack of high-quality projects matching the income and financing cost, and even some illegal purchase of financial management with special debt funds. At the same time, penetrating supervision leads to stricter project application and approval, and the phenomenon of "capital and other projects" appears in some parts.
