At 24:00 on March 3, a new round of price adjustment window for China’s refined oil products will open. According to the prediction of the comprehensive organization, the increase is “certain”, and with the last increase at the end of 2021, China’s refined oil price will hit another “five consecutive rises”.
In this round of pricing cycle, affected by geopolitical tensions, the international oil price rose unabated and stood at the $110 mark. Among them, US oil hit a new high since August 2013.
Wang Xueqin, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, said that since this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil price has shown a high and volatile market, and the transaction focus has been moving upward. As of the closing on March 1, the change rate of reference crude oil on China’s ninth working day was 3.42%, and the price of gasoline and diesel oil is expected to increase by 150 yuan / ton. In terms of price increase, both No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline increased by 0.12 yuan / L, and No. 0 diesel increased by 0.13 yuan / L. After the implementation of the current round of upward policy, No. 92 gasoline in some parts of southwest and South China may enter the “8 Yuan era”.
According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculation, as of the 9th working day of March 2, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 96.96 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of 4.60%. The corresponding retail price of gasoline and diesel in China should be increased by 170 yuan / ton. The deposit Lianchuang pricing model estimates that the final increase in this round of price adjustment is expected to be about 200 yuan / ton.
According to Zhongyu information data, as of the ninth working day of March 2, Zhongyu’s crude oil valuation was 95.7, an increase of 3.382 or 3.66% over the benchmark price, and the corresponding change of product oil was 150 yuan / ton.
Meng Xiao, an analyst at Zhongyu information, said that at the beginning of this round of price adjustment cycle, it showed stranded expectations. During the cycle, the rising tension between Russia and Ukraine exacerbated concerns about the prospect of energy supply, crude oil prices continued to rise, and Russia’s military action accelerated the upward speed of oil prices. During this period, the wholesale and retail price limit of refined oil changed from stranded expectation to upward expectation, and the upward range was continuously widened.
According to the combing of China Singapore longitude and latitude, China’s refined oil prices have experienced three rounds of adjustment in 2022, showing a pattern of “three rises, zero falls and zero stranding”. Coupled with the increase on December 31, 2021, the oil price shows a trend of “four consecutive rises”. After this round of price adjustment is implemented, China’s refined oil price will hit another “five consecutive rises”. If we use the above data of Zhuo Chuang information and estimate the capacity of 50L fuel tank of general household automobile, it will cost 6 yuan more to fill a tank of No. 92 gasoline.
In terms of China’s wholesale market, Jiang Na, an analyst of jinlianchuang refined oil, pointed out that the cost of main outsourcing increased significantly, and the price of gasoline and diesel rose. Due to the rapid price rise, the industry is in conflict with the current high price. The off-site consumption is dominated by the early inventory, and the overall purchase and sales atmosphere of the market is weak.
For the future, Jiang Na believes that the situation in Russia and Ukraine may be difficult to ease in the short term, the international crude oil price may continue to explore, and the news boost remains.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) chief economist Zhao Wei said in a recent journal that oil prices will still be easy to rise and difficult to fall in 2022. Since entering the shale oil era, the sharp expansion of crude oil production in the United States has reduced the ceiling of crude oil price to $120 / barrel. Looking forward to the future, OPEC’s pricing power is strengthened and the credibility of increasing production continues to be verified. The subsequent increase of shale oil production in the United States is weak, which may not worry about the disturbance brought by the supply side. If the incremental impact of crude oil brought by Iran is falsified and the superposition of global crude oil demand is still in the improvement channel, for oil prices, 100 US dollars / barrel may only mean the first half, and the possibility of reaching 120 US dollars / barrel cannot be ruled out.
According to the principle of “ten working days”, the next round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 17. Meng Xiao predicted that according to the existing oil price forecast, it was temporarily stranded.
