Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for three consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. In the short term, the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts has slowed down, but under the high level of gold and crude oil, global risk aversion remains. The impact of A-share sentiment has slowed down, but it is still suppressed to a certain extent. Under the structural market, we can still consider making preparations for strategic allocation.
Shanghai Securities News reported that the continuous tense situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to suppress the capital sentiment in the overseas market. Affected by the geographical situation, risk aversion in overseas markets is still strong. During yesterday's night trading, the prices of safe haven assets such as gold and crude oil continued to rise, Comex gold continued to operate above US $1900 / ounce, and Brent crude oil broke through the US $100 / barrel mark again. Among a shares, the gold and oil sectors continued to be strong, and many of them ushered in continuous sharp rises. The market transmission caused by this risk aversion is mainly reflected at this moment. However, such varieties are easy to rise sharply under special circumstances, and once the risk aversion falls, they are also easy to retreat quickly. We should still pay attention to the possible risk of sharp fluctuations.
For the A-share market, it is slowing down as a whole recently. On the one hand, the interference factors of overseas conflicts are decreasing, on the other hand, the index is also rising continuously. However, the pressure in the upward process remains, repeated or inevitable. Specifically, the current market trading volume has not been released, which also indicates that there are still difficulties in the in-depth development of the market. Technically, the index has repeatedly blocked the 3500 point integer level. Whether this position can break through or break through in large quantities, or it is an important reference for the short-term market wind direction. At present, if the trading volume cannot be released, we should pay attention to the rise and fall again.
Yesterday, we mentioned that in March, the market profit-making effect may not be very strong. After all, from the historical data, the overall increase of the index in that month is small, but there is a core feature, that is, the overall market is relatively stable. Combined with the characteristics of the current market, on the one hand, the fundamentals are relatively stable, on the other hand, the policy underpinning of stable growth, coupled with the boost of the upcoming important meeting, the probability of overall market stability still exists. Therefore, in March, the market is still expected to be stable and good.
Since February, it has been "tossing" for a month when the market fluctuated sideways. Here, the end of "tossing" still depends on several factors: first, the slowdown of the impact of overseas conflicts. At present, overseas conflicts have not significantly alleviated the concern of sentiment, which will suppress the global market for a period of time; Secondly, the relevant benefits of the A-share market were ignored and could not appear under the suppression of overseas parties. For example, the support of our steady growth, the boost of the opening of the easing cycle and the good expectation of the market under the boost of important meetings.
If these problems are not solved, the market will improve and usher in a decent market, or it still needs to "suffer". However, there is no need to be too pessimistic. The market is still in the "late spring cold" stage, but the downward space is not large. There are still times when the interval repeatedly rubs the bottom. At this stage, value and growth may alternate, but the probability of trend market is low. Radical investors can consider gradually strategic allocation. Under the continuous tracking of undervalued and stable growth sectors, oversold high boom growth stocks have prominent cost performance at present, and bargain hunting allocation can also be considered after continuous adjustment.
