With a high base, the profit growth rate in October rose compared with that in September, and was still stronger than that in the same period in history; After the correction of the power and production restriction policy, the trend of finished product replenishment inventory is more obvious; The turnover period of accounts receivable and finished products increased compared with September, but the liquidity of enterprises remained at a high level; Focus on the pressure of raw material prices and electricity prices on the manufacturing industry.
In October, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 24.6% year-on-year, the profit of industrial enterprises from January to October increased by 42.2% year-on-year, and the operating revenue increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Compared with January October 2019, the profit increased by 43.2% year-on-year, with an average increase of 19.7% in two years. The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises increased compared with January September. From the month on month perspective, the total profit of the month increased by 10.8% month on month, which was stronger than the decline of 1.5% at the historical average level.
In October, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises rose. In terms of profitability, the moving average roe and ROA increased by 0.18 percentage points and 0.08 percentage points respectively compared with September, the profit margin of operating revenue increased by 0.05 percentage points compared with September, and the total asset turnover increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with September; In terms of revenue, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in the current month increased by 8.3 percentage points compared with September, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of net profit decreased by 2.5 percentage points compared with January September, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of operating revenue decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared with January September; In terms of asset liquidity, the year-on-year growth rate of accounts receivable decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 11.3%, the average payback period increased by 0.4 days compared with September, the year-on-year growth rate of finished product inventory increased by 2.6 percentage points to 16.3%, and the turnover days increased by 0.1 days compared with September.
From January to October 2021, the growth rate of industrial profits maintained a high growth. Among the 41 major industrial industries, the total profits of 32 industries increased year-on-year, one industry turned loss into profit and eight industries decreased. From January to October, the total profits of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry increased by 5.76 times year-on-year, the oil and natural gas mining industry increased by 2.63 times, the coal mining and washing industry increased by 2.10 times, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.63 times, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.32 times, and the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 1.16 times, Both are upstream cyclical products industries; The automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 2.9%, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry decreased by 10.0%, the food manufacturing industry decreased by 3.5%, and the power and heat production and supply industry decreased by 29.0%, mostly downstream consumer manufacturing and public utilities. Compared with January September, the industries with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits include coal, non-ferrous metals, textile industry, non-metallic minerals, transportation equipment and tobacco products. The industries with a large decline in the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits include petroleum processing, chemical fiber, steel, papermaking and chemical raw materials.
In October, with the correction of the power and production restriction policy, the production of industrial enterprises gradually resumed. In addition, the factors that have a great impact on production also include the seasonal replenishment of finished products at the end of the year, strong consumer demand on overseas holidays, etc. From the perspective of enterprise production and operation, there is a strong demand for inventory replenishment of finished products at the production end before the end of the year, which may drive the continuous strong growth of industrial added value. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the spillover impact of the fluctuation of regulation policies of the real estate industry on the demand for relevant upstream periodic products in the resumption of work in the next year. From the financial data, although corporate liquidity preference continues to decline, it is expected to remain at a high level after the Spring Festival and before returning to work. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to two aspects: first, the high price of upstream raw materials and the increase of electricity price pose obvious pressure on the manufacturing industry, and whether there will be financial support policies for the manufacturing industry, especially small, medium and micro enterprises before the end of the year. Second, overseas countries are still facing the possible fluctuation of economic recovery under the influence of epidemic uncertainty, Attention should be paid to the accounts receivable turnover of export-oriented enterprises.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The impact of the global covid-19 epidemic has expanded.
