event:
On January 27, 2021, the Bureau of statistics released the benefit data of industrial enterprises in October. From January to October 2021, the profits of Enterprises above designated size increased by 42.2% year-on-year and 24.6% year-on-year in October.
comment:
From January to October 2021, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 42.2% year-on-year, 43.2% over the same period in 2019, and an average increase of 19.7% over the two years, indicating that the operation of industrial enterprises has improved. On the one hand, due to the acceleration of industrial production in October, the prices of some industrial products continued to rise, and the revenue growth of industrial enterprises improved significantly; On the other hand, with the measures taken by the management to reduce taxes and fees, ensure supply and stabilize prices, the profit margin of enterprise revenue has also improved, resulting in the improvement of the benefit data of industrial enterprises in October. From the operation of different types of enterprises, although the operation of private enterprises is still significantly weaker than that of state-owned enterprises, the pace of decline in the net profit growth of private enterprises has further slowed down, and the effectiveness of the policy of helping enterprises to rescue has been shown.
From the perspective of industry revenue structure, the revenue growth of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the revenue end from January to October is still differentiated. The growth rate of upstream revenue is still expanding, while the middle and lower reaches are lower than that from January to September. Compared with the same period in 2019, the growth rate of upstream, middle and downstream revenue rebounded, with the largest recovery in the upstream. The same is true from the two-year average perspective. On the whole, the growth rate of upstream revenue is relatively dominant.
From the perspective of industry profit structure, the profits of upstream, middle and downstream industries also show a differentiation trend. From January to October, the cumulative profit growth rate of upstream enterprises was 60.5%, which was significantly improved compared with that from January to September, mainly related to the further rise of PPI to a record high; At the same time, driven by rising prices, midstream enterprises also rebounded slightly to 48.2%; The cumulative growth rate of downstream enterprises fell slightly to 26.2% in the past two years. Considering our judgment that PPI peaked and fell in November, it is expected that the profit differentiation of the industry is also expected to be alleviated next year.
Looking forward to the future, although the operation of industrial enterprises has improved, structural problems still exist, and the profit squeeze in the middle and lower reaches is still obvious. It is expected to improve in the downward process of PPI in the future. In the next stage, all links will also face new economic downward pressure, the pressure on the demand side of industrial enterprises will gradually appear, and the business pressure still exists.
Risk tip: China's economic downturn has increased, and the development of the global epidemic has exceeded expectations.
