Macro liquidity and capital price:
The central bank’s 100 billion reverse repurchase will stabilize the capital level, and there will be great pressure on the maturity of funds in the next week. The central bank carried out 100 billion reverse repo for three consecutive days, realizing a net investment of 175 billion yuan. RMB 400 billion of reverse repo will expire in the next week, which may have a certain disturbing impact on inter-bank funds. We can pay attention to the renewal of maturity of the central bank.
The risk-free interest rate fell slightly and the term interest spread narrowed. Affected by the recent increase in market expectations for the subsequent broad currency, the yield of treasury bonds declined. Since November, the risk-free interest rate has fallen slowly, the yield of one-year short-term treasury bonds has fallen by 7.2bp, the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds has fallen by 12.3bp, and the term spread has narrowed by 5.1bp.
The emergence of a new variant virus has worsened the overseas epidemic. Omicron mutant strain increased market uncertainty, the market priced for the slowdown of recovery, and the expectation of interest rate increase cooled down. Meanwhile, Powell was nominated for re-election, and the Fed’s dove policy will continue.
The implied risk premium of A-Shares is above the average. The implied risk premium of A-Shares decreased slightly by 1.3bp. “CSI 300 dividend yield – yu’e Bao 7-day annualized yield” increased by 1.4bp compared with the previous week.
Micro liquidity and capital supply and demand:
Private placement expanded rapidly, and “fixed income +” issuance was hot. According to the securities fund industry association, in October, the scale of private securities investment funds reached 6.08 trillion, an increase of 490 billion month on month; It does not seem to be affected by factors such as medium and small cap adjustment and quantitative private placement closure; Since the second half of the year, the scale of private equity funds has increased by 1.2 trillion, much faster than about 300 billion in stocks and hybrid public offerings. During the year, the “fixed income +” fund continued to be sought after. As of November 26, 336 new “fixed income +” funds have been established this year, with a total fund-raising scale of more than 500 billion yuan, a record high.
Recently, the land stock connect continues to add electronic, electrical equipment and non-ferrous metal plates. In the past week, the net capital inflow of land stock connect was RMB 5.7 billion, and the industries of additional allocation of electronics, non-ferrous metals and electrical equipment ranked first. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has been the top net buyer of land stock connect for several consecutive weeks, and the top net reduction of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) for many consecutive weeks.
Financing funds flow out of financial real estate. In the past week, the net increase of leveraged funds for electrical equipment ranked first; Non bank finance, real estate and building materials were among the top sellers. Recently, the fluctuation in the electrical equipment sector has increased. In the past two weeks, the financial and real estate sector rebounded, and the financing funds chose to sell.
In terms of capital demand, the recent scale of equity financing and the net reduction of industrial capital are at a normal level. In November, the overall scale of lifting the ban fell month on month. The large-scale stocks to be lifted in the coming week include Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (about 73.2 billion), Hiecise Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300809) (about 6.4 billion), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (about 5.1 billion), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (about 3.6 billion) and master Biology (about 3 billion).
Institutional behavior observation:
Recently, the hot industries investigated by institutions include chemical industry, machinery, electronics, medicine, computer, food and beverage, etc. Overall, the survey heat in the last four weeks is lower than that in the previous four weeks. The secondary industries that have increased significantly include instrumentation, diversified finance, cement manufacturing, household light industry, power supply equipment, etc.
Risk tip: there is error in data statistics
