Key points:
event
Bureau of Statistics: in October, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 24.6% year-on-year, 8.3pct faster than last month, rising for two consecutive months; From January to October, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 42.2% year-on-year, with an average increase of 19.7% in the two years.
The profit margin of enterprises improved, with a significant year-on-year increase in the current month
The profit margin of enterprises improved, with a significant year-on-year increase in the current month. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises was 7161.990 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 42.20% and an average growth rate of 19.7% in the two years, still in the rapid growth range. In October, the year-on-year growth rate improved significantly, with an increase of 8.3pct compared with the previous value, recording 24.60%. On the whole, the industrial added value is in the falling range, the industrial ex factory price index rises year-on-year, and the marginal profit margin of enterprises rises. Therefore, the improvement of the profit reading of industrial enterprises from January to October is driven to some extent by the rising price factors and profit margin. However, with the easing of the contradiction between supply and demand of upstream raw material prices, the commodity prices are expected to peak and fall in the future, Or drive the profit growth of industrial enterprises to slow down.
The improvement of profit margin caused by the relief of enterprise cost pressure
With the continuous promotion of tax reduction and fee reduction and measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the policy goal of relieving enterprise production costs has achieved initial results. From January to October, the operating costs of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size totaled 20.3% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous value; The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 83.70 yuan, a decrease of 0.03 yuan compared with the previous value, and a decrease of 0.48 yuan compared with last October.
The upstream is still strong, and the differentiation pattern may slow down in the future
According to the division of labor in the industrial chain, the performance of the upstream raw material industry is still eye-catching. In October, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits in mining, mining and washing industries continued to rise compared with the previous month, the profit pressure pattern of the midstream manufacturing industry continued, the equipment manufacturing industry, paper manufacturing industry and instrument manufacturing industry further fell compared with the previous month, and the downstream industries are difficult to improve, Among them, the cumulative profit of automobile manufacturing industry changed from positive to negative year-on-year, recording – 2.9% in October. The “lack of core” has a serious impact on automobile production capacity.
Whether the industry profit differentiation pattern will still depend on the price trend of bulk commodities. From the recent price trend of raw materials, it can be found that the prices of most commodities have fallen. In addition, Six industrial metals The spot price of (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin) is higher than the futures price for the first time in 14 years, reflecting that the market is not optimistic about the sustainability of commodity futures price rise, and the inflection point of commodity price is expected to appear within this year or early next year. We judge that the profit differentiation pattern of the industry will slow down in the future, but the cost transfer ability will depend on the needs of specific industries In general, industries with large demand have strong cost transfer ability, which can be verified from the recent price rise of downstream condiments and other industries.
Risk statement
The uncertainty of policy exceeding expectations and variant strains on the global economy.
