International commodities generally fell significantly on Friday; The rise of Chinese meat and vegetables has converged; Transactions in the property market in large and medium-sized cities are still low.
1. Meat and vegetables. The average wholesale price of pork of the Ministry of agriculture continued to rise, with a year-on-year decrease narrowed to 37.76% and a month on month increase of 1%; Shandong vegetable wholesale price index rose slightly by 0.27% month on month, and the fluctuation range was significantly less than that in mid and early November. The food Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price index rose 0.2% month on month.
2. The international bulk market generally fell significantly on Friday. According to Xinhua news agency, Botswana, South Africa and other countries recently reported a new variant of COVID-19 virus, experts believe that the strain of multiple mutations or lead to a stronger resistance to existing vaccines. Many countries have announced restrictions or suspension of flights from South Africa and other countries. The market is obviously worried that the mutant strain Omicron may trigger more international travel restrictions and disturb the global economic recovery. Risk aversion increased significantly on Friday, crude oil fell sharply and US bond interest rates jumped.
In addition, the dust of the Fed’s “election” was initially settled, and Powell was finally nominated for re-election. This shows that inflation still plays an important role in Biden’s government’s policy considerations. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting this month also showed that many participants were open to accelerating the reduction of bond purchase and raising interest rates earlier.
The game between crude oil supply and demand was further upgraded. According to the EIA report, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.017 million barrels to 434 million barrels in the week of November 19; Crude oil inventories in Cushing increased by 787000 barrels to 27.385 million barrels, rebounding for two consecutive weeks. The US government announced that it would jointly release about 70 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves with consumer countries such as Japan, South Korea, India and the United Kingdom. However, this may also trigger OPEC + to adjust production accordingly. Previously, OPEC monthly report has slightly lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand; The International Energy Forum (IEF) also warned that OPEC + may change its plan if consumer countries release their reserves; In addition, this Omicron attack does not rule out that the OPEC + ministerial meeting on December 2 may adjust the production increase plan.
The futures prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.41% and 3.81% month on month, respectively, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 67.38% and 69.49% respectively.
Most nonferrous metals prices rose. Copper and aluminum prices rose slightly, LME copper prices rose 33.89% year-on-year and 1.83% month on month; Aluminum prices rose 36.24% year-on-year and 1.51% month on month; Copper and gold rose 5.57% month on month.
This week, the month on month decline of China’s cement price index expanded to 1.68%. The operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of more than 2 million tons in China decreased by 0.28% month on month. The operating rate of blast furnace decreased by 0.86% month on month. The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index was basically flat with the previous week.
3. The property market transactions in large and medium-sized cities are still low. In the week of November 22, the total land transaction price in 100 large and medium-sized cities increased by 21.25% month on month, and the land premium rate decreased by 84.07% month on month. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 5.4% month on month, of which the transaction area of first, second and third tier cities decreased by 5.77%, 4.47% and 6.6% month on month respectively. In the first 25 days of November, commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities reached 11.03 million square meters, which is only better than the same period in 2011. We maintain our previous view that although there are news of property market regulation or loosening on the Internet from time to time recently, the main contradiction in the recent property market is the wait-and-see mood of property buyers, not the fine-tuning of policies.
Risk tips: Overseas epidemic prevention and control exceeded expectations, real economy outside China changed beyond expectations, inflation rose beyond expectations, etc.
