1. Macro environment and policy status
Considering: 1) the market’s expectations for the implementation of stable growth policies after the two sessions are rising; 2) The real estate market is relaxed from bottom to top; 3) Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market has expected a correction in the number of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve in March and this year. There was marginal change in the factors restricting market sentiment in the early stage. In terms of policy, the decline of export boom and the pressure of RMB devaluation may restrict the further easing of monetary policy, but the RRR reduction is still expected. In terms of allocation, the investment value of large cap stocks of equity assets has little change, the investment value of medium cap stocks has increased rapidly, and the investment value of consumer stocks has increased significantly; Maintain the standard allocation of interest rate bonds and high rated credit bonds, and reduce the convertible bonds to low allocation; Maintain low allocation of precious metals and industrial products, and increase Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) to standard allocation; Low allocation and long RMB strategy. Suggested positions: equity (64%) bonds (21%) commodities (14%) cash (1%).
2. Views and suggestions on asset allocation
Quantitative view: at the sector level in February, the upper reaches, middle reaches and growth of the cycle performed well, while the financial and consumption sectors performed poorly. In terms of industry, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, steel, public utilities and other industries performed well, and household appliances, non bank finance, media and other industries retreated significantly. Based on the two-beta model, we constructed the manufacturing activity index as the proxy variable. According to the latest data of the model, the Tianfeng manufacturing activity index decreased year-on-year, cash flow decreased and the discount rate decreased. The model recommends that the growth and consumption sectors be configured in March.
Equity market view: in February, the index rebounded weakly, with mid early cycle + finance and late technology + medicine. In the short-term dimension, it is still optimistic about the continuation of the growth oversold rebound: the tightening rhythm of the Federal Reserve is expected to ease, the release of valuation and transaction congestion, the catalysis of positive factors outside China, the growth style supported by Tianliang social finance for a period of time, and it is about to enter the first quarter window period. In the medium-term dimension, maintain the judgment of “shock in the first half of the year, indestructible, and great opportunities in the second half of the year”. In the growth direction, focus on: smart cars, components and inverters, semiconductor equipment and materials, batteries and lithium battery equipment, financial it, industrial Internet, etc.
Bond market view: March is the window period of the two sessions, but historical experience shows that there is no specific law on the capital during the two sessions, which is more related to the behavior of the central bank, economic fundamentals and seasonal factors at that time. At present, the fundamental situation still needs to be observed. Steady growth and wide credit are the main lines of the policy. The central bank can still expect to reduce the reserve requirement in the next 1-2 months, and the inter-bank liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant. For the current bond market, the focus of the transaction is still steady growth and wide credit, and it is impossible to simply reduce interest rates again. In terms of bond allocation, although the interest rate spread of financial bonds has been at a low level, there is still some room for rise in comprehensive income, liquidity and risk assessment; In the first quarter, local government bonds were issued in a large amount, and the proportion of interest rate bonds is expected to increase slightly; Convertible bonds are still assets favored by the market.
Nonferrous Metals view: the price of base metals recovered in March, the price of precious metals strengthened but fluctuated violently, the price of rare earth remained high and fluctuated, and the price of lithium continued to hit a record high. Looking ahead, as the medium-term supply side growth rate is controllable, overseas infrastructure policy stimulus + global recovery is still inertia, new energy is expected to bring emerging demand growth, superimposed with Russia Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Russia, aggravating some metal supply concerns, copper and zinc with strong economic sensitivity and electrolytic aluminum related to the post real estate cycle are expected to fluctuate at a high level; Precious metal prices have been basically included in the expectation of interest rate increase, but the risk aversion caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine may support the gold price in the short term; Rare earth is expected to usher in the inflection point of supply and demand structure, and the resonance of demand, policy and integration will lead to the high price center continuously exceeding expectations; Lithium salt prices are expected to remain high under the background of continued good demand for new energy vehicles.
Crude oil view: the global crude oil supply and demand tends to be loose in 2022, but it may still be tight before the OPEC baseline rise in May. The possibility of further rise in oil prices in the short term is not ruled out, but it is expected to fall in the second quarter, and the annual Center may remain at $70-80. Among equity assets related to crude oil, considering that the fundamentals and share price of oil service companies lag behind the oil price, it is suggested to pay attention to trading opportunities in the oil service sector.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) point of view: at present, China’s willingness to replenish reserves in soybean sales areas is obvious, the purchase price of soybean in national reserves is increased, it is expected that China’s soybean price will remain high and fluctuate, and the international soybean supply will tighten due to the weather, so the price will fluctuate high; China’s corn market is booming, and the war between Russia and Ukraine is expected to exacerbate the turmoil in the global grain market, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of corn and wheat may rise throughout the year; Global cotton consumption continues to recover, and insufficient production needs to support high cotton prices; The recent low temperature, rain and snow weather in southern China is not conducive to the growth of rape, and the subsequent price range of edible vegetable oil needs to be adjusted according to consumption and trade; The consumption of live pigs in March is weaker than that before the Spring Festival, which is expected to aggravate the loose supply and demand. The short-term pig price will still be under pressure. The trend of de breeding sows in the medium and long-term industry has become, and the bottom of the pig cycle is clear.
Risk tips: the steady growth policy was not fulfilled as expected, the liquidity was tightened as expected, the spread of mutant strains exceeded expectations, overseas uncertainties, etc.
