Event: in November, China’s manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, the previous value was 49.2%; PMI of non manufacturing industry was 52.3%, the former value was 52.4%; The comprehensive PMI was 52.2%, and the former value was 50.8%.
In November, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, both ends of production and demand improved, and the import and export outlook continued to rise. Affected by a series of policies recently issued to strengthen energy supply guarantee and stabilize market prices, manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in November, rebounded for the first time after falling for seven consecutive months and returned to the expansion range. In terms of industry conditions, among the 21 industries surveyed, 12 were higher than the critical point, an increase of 3 over the previous month, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry has expanded. In terms of both supply and demand, the production index and new order index recorded 52.0% and 49.4% respectively in November, up 3.6 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, and both production and demand rebounded. By industry, the production index of papermaking and printing, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and other industries was higher than 56.0%, and the industrial production activities were significantly accelerated; Agricultural and sideline food processing, food, wine, beverage, refined tea and other industries entered the traditional peak season, and the new order index rose to a higher boom range of more than 55.0%; However, wood processing and furniture, chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and calendering industries are in the low range of less than 43.0%, and the market demand of the industry is weak. In terms of import and export, affected by the continuous recovery of the world economy and the approaching Christmas consumption season abroad, the foreign trade boom continued to improve last month. In November, the new export order index and import index recorded 48.5% and 48.1% respectively, up 1.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, but still below the boom and bust line.
The price index fell sharply, and the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises improved. In November, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 52.9% and 48.9% respectively, significantly lower than 19.2 and 12.2 percentage points last month. Among them, the ex factory price index fell below the critical point, and the effectiveness of policies and measures such as “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” was obvious. From the perspective of major industries, the two price indexes of chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing and other industries fell significantly below the critical point, indicating that the purchase price and product sales price of some basic raw material production industries fell significantly. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, but it is still on the boom and bust line. The medium-sized PMI index recorded 51.2%, up 2.6 percentage points month on month. The PMI index of small enterprises recorded 48.5%, up 1.0 percentage points month on month.
The non manufacturing industry maintained expansion, the recovery of the service industry slowed down, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated. In November, the business activity index of non manufacturing industry was 52.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month. It continued to be on the boom and bust line, and the non manufacturing industry recovered smoothly. In terms of service industry, the business activity index of service industry in November was 51.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of producer services, which is closely related to manufacturing activities, is in the high boom range of more than 55.0%, of which the total business volume of information services, financial services, business services and other industries has increased rapidly; Or affected by the recent scattered epidemic in many places, the business activity index of life service industry closely related to contact consumption has fallen below the critical point. Among them, the business activity index of accommodation, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment industries has fallen sharply to 46.0% or below, and the market activity has decreased significantly. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities in November recorded 58.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but continued to be in the high boom range of more than 55.0%, indicating that the service industry is generally optimistic about future business activities. In the construction industry, the business activity index of the construction industry in November was 59.1%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month, continued to be in a high boom range, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated.
Overall, the manufacturing boom picked up significantly in November, and the recovery of the service industry continued to slow down. In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month, and the overall expansion pace was accelerated. Due to the positive impact of the recent introduction and implementation of policies and measures such as ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the tension of power supply was alleviated in November, and the prices of some raw materials fell significantly. In November, the manufacturing PMI index recorded 50.1%, returning to the expansion range since August. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the marginal changes of policies such as dual control of energy consumption and the transmission trend of upstream raw material prices to downstream means of living. In addition, in the current situation of multi-point spread of the epidemic and many affected areas, the recovery of the service industry has continued to slow down in recent two months. It is expected that the follow-up service industry will still bear great pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the latest situation of the international epidemic such as covid-19 mutant strain. At the same time, the PMI of medium-sized enterprises ended the contraction trend for two consecutive months and rose above the critical point. The PMI of small-sized enterprises also expanded month on month, indicating that the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved. In the follow-up, we should pay attention to the state’s structural relief policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks outside China, higher than expected changes in commodity prices, and higher than expected changes in China’s policies.
