In mid November, the PMI index of mining and manufacturing industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, returning to above the critical point. We believe that the pattern of “standing first and breaking later” is gradually formed, and the “new energy +” related investment is expected to continue to drive China’s economic growth. In the process of establishing a new energy system, energy consumption indicators are often required. The process of rapidly eliminating backward production capacity through dual control of energy consumption has been corrected. Black, nonferrous metals, building materials and chemical industries have begun to resume production. The production index has risen sharply by 3.6% to 52%, and the price index has fallen simultaneously. From the perspective of “establishment”, we need to increase investment in manufacturing industry, and a pattern of double prosperity of supply and demand driven by “new energy +” will be formed in the future. In addition, carbon neutralization is not only China’s carbon neutralization, but global carbon neutralization. In the new export orders in November, the automobile, electrical and mechanical industries performed better, or it is related to the global promotion of carbon neutralization. We believe that the construction of “new energy +” around the world has been started, forming a strong support for China’s relevant manufacturing investment.
The double control of energy consumption has been corrected, and the production index has been greatly repaired
In November, the production index increased by 3.6 percentage points to 52%, and the production repair strength significantly exceeded the market expectation. We believe that there are the following reasons: first, the “one size fits all” dual control of energy consumption has been corrected, industrial production has returned to natural growth, and there is even a certain compensatory repair. The data show that in November, except that the reduction of crude steel is still advancing, the operating rates of other major industrial industries have rebounded significantly, and the operating rates of steel, nonferrous metals, building materials and chemical industry have rebounded month on month. 2、 Remarkable results have been achieved in the work of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”. Since late October, coal supply has increased rapidly, and the price of upstream raw materials has dropped significantly. The constraints of coal and electricity shortage and rising cost pressure were significantly relieved in November, and the willingness of enterprises to start work has rebounded. 3、 The problem of core shortage has been alleviated, and there has been restorative production in the automobile industry chain. The operating rates of all steel tires and semi steel tires increased slightly compared with October.
The export order index rebounded, and the recovery of foreign demand was even greater
In November, the new order index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.4%, and the demand showed a warming trend. Among them, the new export order index rebounded by 1.9 percentage points to 48.5%, and the recovery of foreign demand was even greater. Major overseas economies continued to recover. In November, manufacturing PMI in the United States, Europe and Japan rebounded to varying degrees. We believe that the construction of “new energy +” around the world may have been started, forming a strong support for China’s related manufacturing investment. The data show that the slight recovery of new export orders in October is mainly driven by special equipment, textile and garment and pharmaceutical manufacturing industries, which reflects the return of orders and the recovery of demand for anti epidemic materials caused by the rebound of the epidemic situation, while the export orders in November are mainly driven by industries such as automobile, electrical and mechanical equipment, which is related to the global promotion of “carbon neutrality”.
The price index fell sharply and PPI ushered in a downward inflection point
In November, the purchase price index of main raw materials decreased by 19.2 percentage points to 52.9%, and the ex factory price index decreased by 12.2 percentage points to 48.9%. The sharp decline of the price index indicates that PPI ushered in a definite inflection point year-on-year in November. On the one hand, one size fits all dual control of energy consumption has been corrected, production and power restrictions have been gradually liberalized, and the prices of high energy consuming industrial products such as cement, glass and some chemicals have fallen; On the other hand, with the outbreak of a new round of global epidemic, the market generally expects that the impact on demand will be greater than that on supply, commodity prices will generally fall, and imported inflation pressure will fall.
The demand for steady growth has gradually increased, waiting for the signal from the economic work conference
The supply and demand of PMI in manufacturing industry has been repaired, but the pressure of falling domestic demand is still large. In November, the year-on-year decline in the sales area of commercial housing was still large, and the land acquisition enthusiasm of real estate enterprises was poor. In November, the non manufacturing PMI real estate industry sub item fell to 43.8, and the demand for steady growth gradually increased. On November 18 and November 22, Premier Li Keqiang spoke twice in a row to strengthen the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees”, reflecting that the economic downturn has formed a certain pressure on Residents’ employment and market subjects. We believe that with the increasing downward pressure on the economy, steady growth will become an important goal of macro policy. It is expected that the central economic work conference at the end of the year will release a more positive signal of steady growth. In the first quarter of next year, the economy is expected to gradually stabilize by “launching four arrows” to expand credit.
Risk tip: the friction strength between China and the United States exceeds expectations; Covid-19 virus mutation leads to vaccine failure
