event:
In November 2021, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month.
comment:
1. In November, PMI returned to the boom and bust line, and the supply and demand of manufacturing industry improved
Last month, we predicted a slight rebound in PMI in November. As we expected, PMI returned to the boom and bust line in November. We believe that PMI may continue to improve marginally in December.
From the manufacturing PMI sub item, the new order index was 49.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the downstream demand margin improved; The raw material inventory index was 47.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the decline of raw material inventory in manufacturing industry narrowed; The production index was 52.0%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the impact of dual control production restriction and power grid power restriction on the supply side was significantly alleviated, and the manufacturing production rebounded rapidly.
2. In November, manufacturing exports continued to pick up, and the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises began to rise
Both supply and demand have improved. On the production side, the production index of papermaking and printing, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and other industries was higher than 56.0%, and the industrial production activities were significantly accelerated. At the downstream demand side, agricultural and sideline food processing, food, wine, beverage, refined tea and other industries entered the traditional peak season, and the new order index rose to a higher boom range of more than 55.0%; However, wood processing and furniture, chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and calendering industries are in the low range of less than 43.0%, and the market demand of the industry is weak.
The export boom continued to pick up. The foreign trade boom continued the improvement trend of the previous month. The new export order index and import index were 48.5% and 48.1% respectively, an increase of 1.9 and 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the new export order index of medicine, automobile, electrical and mechanical equipment and other industries was more than 3.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the product order volume increased.
The prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.2%, which remained above the critical point, basically unchanged from the previous month. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 51.2%, ending the contraction trend for two consecutive months and rising above the critical point. The production index and new order index were in the expansion range, reflecting the recent recovery of production and demand of medium-sized enterprises. The PMI of small enterprises was 48.5%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points over the previous month, and the prosperity of small enterprises improved.
3. In November, the outlook of the construction industry accelerated upward, and the outlook of the service industry decreased
The landscape of the construction industry accelerated upward. The business activity index and new order index of the construction industry were 59.1% and 54.2% respectively, an increase of 2.2 and 1.9 percentage points over the previous month. The production and market demand of the construction industry accelerated the expansion. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index and new order index of civil engineering construction industry were 60.5% and 56.5% respectively, an increase of 5.4 and 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, and the progress of infrastructure construction was accelerated.
The outlook of the service industry has declined. Affected by the epidemic in China, the business activity index of the service industry was 51.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall recovery of the service industry slowed down. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of producer services, which is closely related to manufacturing activities, is in the high boom range of more than 55.0%, of which the total business volume of information services, financial services, business services and other industries has increased rapidly; The business activity index of life service industry closely related to contact consumption fell below the critical point, among which the business activity index of accommodation, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment industries fell sharply to 46.0% and below, and the market activity decreased significantly.
4. PMI of iron and steel industry: it is expected that the steel price will fluctuate slightly in December and the raw material price will stabilize
According to the PMI of the iron and steel industry released by the professional committee of China things Union Iron and steel logistics, it was 36.6% in November, down 1.7 percentage points month on month, and the iron and steel industry continued to operate in a weak position. The sub index shows that with the winter in many places this month, the overall market demand is poor, and the steel production continues to decline under the influence of policies such as environmental protection and production control. The cost of raw materials has dropped significantly, and the price of steel has also fallen all the way. It is expected that in December, the steel market will continue to operate at a low level, the supply and demand ends will continue to weaken, the raw material prices may stabilize and rise, and the steel prices will fluctuate slightly.
