overview:
Production: the daily consumption of electricity and coal in the eight coastal provinces turned negative year-on-year. Under the restriction of production in the heating season and low profit, the active maintenance limited the steel output, and the operating rate of tires and looms continued to rise at a low level. Commodity price volatility increased this week, and China’s real estate easing expectations once stimulated commodity prices to rebound, but the risk aversion caused by the mutant virus on Friday once again caused a heavy blow. Oil prices plunged $10 on Friday, falling for five consecutive weeks. With the improvement of China’s power supply and the relaxation of real estate expectations, the prices of PVC, LLDPE and caustic soda rebounded significantly, and the prices of nonferrous metals were once boosted, but the risk aversion made copper and aluminum fall again on Friday. The price of thermal coal remained stable below 1100 yuan / ton. The destocking of steel inventory accelerated, the year-on-year decline in apparent demand for rebar narrowed to – 20%, steel prices rebounded, iron ore also stopped falling and rebounded, but coking coal is still falling. Cement prices continued to decline, but glass continued to rebound.
Demand: in the third week of November, the decline of passenger car retail and wholesale narrowed, but the repair speed was still slow. The box office of 4wma cinema picked up year-on-year in the previous week. Real estate sales in 30 cities fell again to near – 30% year-on-year, and the decline in second and third tier cities expanded. Land transactions remained low, first tier cities continued to fall, and the land premium rate fell again. The saleable area and inventory of real estate in the top ten cities continued to rise. The BDI index rose above 2600, and China’s import and export container freight rates remained volatile, but the more sensitive Shanghai export container freight rates rebounded slightly for three consecutive weeks. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the price fell, the pig price rose slowly, the vegetable price continued to fall, and the main grain price rose and fell.
Overseas: the year-end holiday is approaching, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is deteriorating again, and many European countries strengthen sealing and control measures. U.S. economic data improved significantly in October, retail sales and manufacturing output both exceeded expectations, and some Fed survey indexes also improved in November. Biden signed a fiscal bill on the 15th, including $550 billion of new infrastructure spending in the next five years. The 175 million social spending bill was also voted through in the house of Representatives on Friday, but it still needs the support of moderate Democrats in the Senate. Fed policymakers called for an accelerated end to bond purchases. The market’s concern about raising interest rates in advance has increased, but the deterioration of the European epidemic has exacerbated the demand for hedging. The 10-year US bond interest rate fell 4bp to 1.54%, the US dollar index broke the 96 mark and continued to set a 16 month high. The improvement of economic data boosted US stocks. The NASDAQ and S & P hit another record high, but the Dow fell.
Risk factors: Overseas Policies tightened more than expected.
