In November 2021, China’s manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, with the previous value of 49.2%; PMI of non manufacturing industry was 52.3%, the former value was 52.4%; The comprehensive PMI was 52.2%, and the former value was 50.8%.
The PMI data in November showed the following characteristics:
1. Manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the recovery of service industry slowed down. In November, manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, rising for the first time after seven consecutive months of decline, mainly benefiting from recent measures such as energy supply guarantee. In terms of import and export, affected by foreign factors such as Christmas consumption season at the end of the year, the foreign trade boom continued to improve last month. In November, the new export order index and import index recorded 48.5% and 48.1% respectively, but they are still below the boom and bust line. In November, the PMI of non manufacturing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 52.3% month on month, which is related to the repeated suppression of consumption by local epidemics in many places.
2. Production and demand both strengthened. In November, the production index and new order index recorded 52.0% and 49.4% respectively, up 3.6 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, and both production and demand rebounded. The recovery of the production end is mainly due to the reduction of supply constraints. Under the background of ensuring supply and price stability, the constraints of coal and power enterprises on other industrial chains are weakened. In November, the purchase price and ex factory price index of PMI raw materials decreased by 19.2 and 12.2 percentage points month on month to 52.9% and 48.9%, which has basically returned to the normal level. By industry, the production index of papermaking and printing, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and other industries was higher than 56.0%, and the industrial production activities were significantly accelerated; Near the end of the year, consumption ushered in the peak season, the demand of agricultural and sideline food processing, food, wine, beverage, refined tea and other industries turned strong, and the new order index rose to a higher boom range of more than 55.0%.
Overall, PMI ended its contraction for two consecutive months, reflecting China’s economic resilience. With the continuation of energy dual control and other carbon neutralization policies, we believe that PPI may peak, and the relevant price index changes more obviously. Towards the end of the year, with the spread of the Omicron virus in South Africa, the recovery of the world economy is once again overshadowed. However, under the previously verified Chinese epidemic prevention and control measures, China’s economic growth advantage over foreign countries will be strengthened. We believe that in the short term, it may usher in the bottom of fundamentals, and the cross-year industry can be expected.
Risk statement
The epidemic development exceeded expectations; Economic data exceeded expectations; Uncertainty risk, etc.
