The low level of supply and demand recovered, and PMI returned above the critical point. In November, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, ending the downward trend for seven consecutive months and returning to above the critical point. Among them, the production index rebounded to 52%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the previous month; The new order index rose 0.6 percentage points to 49.4% compared with the previous value. In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 1.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month to 52.2%.
Market demand improved slightly, but the overall situation was still weak, and new export orders increased compared with the previous month. In November, the PMI new order index rebounded 0.6 percentage points from the previous value to 49.4%, but it is still below the critical point. From the perspective of new orders in China, the low demand of manufacturing industry rebounded. Among them, due to entering the traditional peak consumption season, the new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, food, wine, beverage, refined tea and other industries rose to a higher boom range of more than 55.0%; Although the “double control” policy of energy consumption has been corrected, the demand of some raw materials and high energy consuming industries is still weak, and the industries such as wood processing and furniture, chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are still in the contraction range of less than 43.0%. From the perspective of new export orders, the prosperity of foreign trade continued to improve due to the proximity of Foreign Christmas consumption season, the superposition of peak staggering advantages and other factors. In November, new export orders rose by 1.9 percentage points to 48.5% over the previous month, maintaining a recovery trend for two consecutive months, but still below the boom and bust line. In terms of industries, the new export order index of medicine, automobile, electrical machinery and other industries was more than 3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month and reached the expansion range. The end of the year is the peak consumption season in western countries. In addition, if the new Omicron mutant virus is not effectively controlled in the near future, the overseas supply chain will still be significantly restrained in the short term. The peak shifting advantage time of China’s foreign demand may be extended and form a support for exports. Superimposed on the pressure of US inflation and the easing signal of China US relations, it is expected that China’s exports will still be resilient in the short term. But at the same time, we should also see that the international economic and trade situation is complex and severe, unstable factors are increasing, and China’s export trend still faces more uncertainty in the future.
Production has been significantly repaired, and the purchase and sales price difference has narrowed. This month’s production index rose 3.6 percentage points to 52% over the previous month, returning to above the critical point, the highest since June this year. In terms of inventory, with the easing of supply constraints and the recovery of demand, although the raw material inventory and finished product inventory are still in the contraction range, they have increased compared with the previous month. Among them, the raw material inventory has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.7% compared with the previous month, and the finished product inventory has increased by 1.6 percentage points to 47.9% compared with the previous value. From the perspective of price index, the price of bulk commodities fell, and the effect of superposition of price stabilization and supply guarantee policy was obvious. The purchase price index and ex factory price index of raw materials decreased by 19.2 and 12.2 percentage points to 52.9% and 48.9% respectively compared with the previous month. The difference between purchase and sales index narrowed significantly, from 11 percentage points in October to 4 percentage points in November. In terms of industry, the two price indexes of chemical industry, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and other industries have dropped significantly below the boom and bust line, indicating that the purchase and sales prices of some upstream raw material industries have decreased significantly. Considering that the international oil price has fluctuated downward since November, the price of Brent crude oil fell from US $81.3/barrel at the beginning of the month to US $71.5/barrel at the end of the month. This month, China’s coal price continued to fall, while the price of iron ore futures also fell synchronously. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be difficult to maintain a continuous upward trend.
The economic boom maintained a trend of differentiation, and the boom of medium-sized enterprises returned to the expansion range. From the perspective of different enterprise sizes, the PMI of large enterprises decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 50.2% compared with the previous month, and the production and operation of large enterprises remained stable on the whole. Medium sized enterprises increased by 2.6 percentage points to 51.2%, returning to above the critical point. The PMI of small enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 48.5% compared with the previous month, but it is still below the critical point, indicating that the production and operation pressure of small enterprises is still large.
The outlook of the service industry decreased slightly, and the PMI of non manufacturing industry is still above the critical point. In November, the non manufacturing business activity index fell 0.1 percentage points to 52.3% compared with the previous month, of which the service business activity index fell 0.5 percentage points to 51.1%, and the construction business activity index rose 2.2 percentage points to 59.1%.
Affected by the spread of the epidemic, the prosperity level of the service industry fell slightly, but it is still in the expansion range. Since October, the epidemic has spread in many places, involving many provinces and disturbing the production of the service industry. From the perspective of the industry, the retail, road transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering related to contact consumption are still weak under the influence of factors such as the easing of supply constraints, the improvement of low demand and the high inflation, The profit margin of downstream small and medium-sized enterprises may be repaired to a certain extent, but the overall operating pressure is still large and continues to drag down production. The manufacturing PMI does not have the basis for continuous and substantial improvement. With the accurate prevention and control of the epidemic situation and the improvement of the vaccination rate of the two shots and the third shot, the demand of non manufacturing service industry may continue the weak repair trend. In the follow-up, since late October, the coal prices represented by coking coal and thermal coal have fallen rapidly compared with the peak value. In November, the coal prices continue to fall, and maintaining supply and price stability is still the main theme of the recent policy. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to form a certain support for production. Although the prices of international crude oil, natural gas and other bulk commodities have declined, they are still in a high range, Therefore, in the short term, the cost pressure of enterprises still exists, but it is expected to slow down. Although the real estate policy has been slightly adjusted recently, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in the real estate industry as a whole, which will increase the pressure on relevant enterprises in the industrial chain. In summary, the investment and production expansion plans of enterprises are still blocked, resulting in investment in manufacturing Real estate investment and other fixed asset investment repair pressure, which will increase the repair resistance of the already weak investment side. Although PMI has improved in the short term with the support of a series of “stable growth” policies, there are still many internal and external constraints on China’s economic operation, and it is expected that the economic repair may still slow down. The business activity indexes of residential services, culture, sports and entertainment industries are below the critical point.
The real estate business activity index continues to be below the boom and bust line, and the landscape of the construction industry is still at a high level. In November, the business activity index of the construction industry increased by 2.2 percentage points to 59.1% compared with the previous month, continued to be in the high boom range, and the expansion speed was accelerated. In November, the new order index of the construction industry was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous value. This month, the real estate business activity index is still below the critical point. Under the continuous cooling of the real estate market, the prosperity level of the related service industry also declined.
