Affected by the external situation, today (March 2), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, fell rapidly at the beginning of the session, showing a pulse downward trend, and then maintained a low shock pattern; In the afternoon, the Shanghai Stock Index gradually rose in shock. Unfortunately, the lack of offensive strength makes it difficult to hide the overall decline pattern.
Investors will pay more attention to the situation of the two stock markets in Russia and may gradually weaken the influence of the policy of holding of the foreign market in Ukraine and on the Chinese stock market in the future.
At the same time, Wanlian Securities pointed out that it is still in the “performance window period + policy force period”. In terms of industry, it is suggested to pay attention to: 1) macro policies should be strengthened, and the “two sessions” are imminent. Before the economic data show substantial improvement, we should continue to pay attention to infrastructure, real estate, finance and other sectors; 2) After the sharp correction of popular tracks, the attraction is improved, and attention is paid to the rebound opportunities of growth sectors.
sector:
I. traditional Chinese medicine concept
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that the advantages of policy support and undervaluation of the traditional Chinese medicine industry are obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to the excellent performance of the annual report. For the traditional Chinese medicine industry, the demand side, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the policy side, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continuous addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese Medicine industry. The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has relatively obvious valuation advantages. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages” jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Cost promotion constitutes a short-term driving factor. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven. The annual report season is coming. It is suggested to pay attention to the subjects with excellent performance in the annual report.
Guosheng securities mentioned that medicine has entered the layout range, which can be moderately optimistic, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been obviously solved, and the conditions for bottom rebound have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not yet found a clear main line, and the oversold rebound may become the most phased direction. Our idea is to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “Fundamentals common sense valuation oversold discount”, in other words, they fall to the second-order guide of the irrational valuation range, Here you can take a look at the pharmaceutical science and technology innovation with obvious overall decline, as well as the stocks with high recognition & clean chip structure. 2) Excavate stocks with high growth or may exceed expectations in the first quarter, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, adult class II vaccine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that by combing the development context of the whole industry chain of traditional Chinese medicine, Nuggets has four sub circuits. Upstream: control the source, stick to the bottom line and strengthen the whole process quality control. Midstream: restrict and standardize the registration and use of traditional Chinese medicine injections, promote the centralized collection and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and focus on supporting traditional Chinese medicine formula granules and innovative traditional Chinese medicine. Downstream: strengthen the construction of TCM departments and personnel training, promote the development of TCM medical services, promote cultural communication and TCM going to sea, and boost the overall situation with medical insurance support policies. We are optimistic about the four major segments: brand proprietary Chinese medicine OTC benefits from industry capacity clearing and terminal price increase, highlighting the advantages of leading enterprises and increasing industry concentration. The pilot of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules has been completed, the 10 billion market will meet the 1-2-fold expansion, and the filing system and the new national standard will build high industrial barriers. The inflection point of new traditional Chinese medicine has arrived, and the pace of registration and evaluation has accelerated. It is expected to give priority to medical insurance and realize large-scale production. Covid-19 has made remarkable achievements in epidemic prevention, and the process of going to sea / internationalization of traditional Chinese medicine is expected to change from integration into Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) system to actual harvest period.
The agency further analyzed that the traditional Chinese medicine industry ushered in a golden period of development and gold mining industry chain investment opportunities. In the long run, under the development background of population aging, disease spectrum change, national top-level policy support and internationalization, the growth space of traditional Chinese medicine industry is huge. We judge that in 2022, with the support of policies and medical insurance, the traditional Chinese medicine industry is expected to usher in an upward turning point, the inheritance and development of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises, the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule industry embraces market expansion and standard and quality improvement, the innovative traditional Chinese medicine is accelerated to be approved into medical insurance, and the traditional Chinese medicine goes to sea at the right time, waiting for performance fulfillment and value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to five types of investment opportunities of traditional Chinese medicine: 1) brand Chinese patent medicine: Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , etc; 2) Traditional Chinese medicine formula granules: Chinese traditional medicine (H) ( Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) parent company), Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) etc; 3) Innovative traditional Chinese medicine: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , etc; 4) , , , \uea63, \uea63 \uea63; 5) TCM diagnosis and treatment: gushengtang (H), Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) .
II. Real estate development
For the real estate industry, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period” was maintained. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Capital securities mentioned that at present, the valuation center of the real estate industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. The strength management after the direction is confirmed will still have a strong correlation with the upward space of the sector. Under the background of steady growth, we think the strength of policy release will be strengthened step by step, It is not ruled out that non hot cities break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies.
For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors to be paid attention to in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . China’s overseas development.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the main line of “stable growth”, the expectation of policy game is increasing, and the market deduction path is gradually clear, transitioning from state-owned enterprise housing to private enterprise housing and property management companies. At present, the industry policy supports the gradual transition from the supply side to the demand side. The relaxation of the management of guaranteed housing loans and the regulation and adjustment of pre-sale funds are the beginning of “stable growth”. Later, we will pay attention to the implementation of policies before and after the two sessions, the first batch of centralized land supply and the acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading stocks of residential development: Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) ; It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality property management companies: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , country garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Jinke service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) .
one drawing summary:
