1. Overall configuration: geopolitical conflicts escalated and trading orders continued to flow out. The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the risk aversion pushed up the US dollar, and the resilience of the RMB was highlighted. In terms of risk appetite, on the evening of the 21st, Russia recognized the independence of eastern Ukraine and the United States announced sanctions against Russia, and the market panic index rose for the first time. On February 24, Russia decided to launch a special military operation in Donbas, which once again triggered a surge in risk aversion in the market. The VIX Index was close to the peak of the year, and the prices of Brent crude oil and Comex gold exceeded US $100 / barrel and US $1970 / ounce respectively. In terms of foreign exchange, geopolitical risks induced risk aversion, the US dollar index rose again, and the RMB continued to maintain resilience and appreciate slightly.
Geopolitical shock superimposed the dove signal of the Federal Reserve, and the “V-shaped” reversal of US stocks. Last week, the trend of U.S. stocks continued to be affected by geopolitical risks. The VIX Index showed a high negative correlation with the trend of U.S. stocks. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exacerbated the fluctuation of panic and triggered the rapid withdrawal of the three major indexes of U.S. stocks. However, in the follow-up, a number of Fed officials successively released “Dove” signals. Although the interest rate hike in March was basically a foregone conclusion, the expectation that the interest rate hike exceeded 25bp fell significantly, and the three major US stock indexes gradually “V-shaped” reversed in the second half of the week.
Trading continued to leave the market, and the outflow expanded northward. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed up risk aversion, and the capital outflow from the North expanded, with a cumulative net outflow of about 6.413 billion yuan in a single week. From the perspective of fund type splitting, the admission rhythm of trading disk and allocation disk has slowed down. Among them, the trading disk has a significant outflow for the second consecutive week, with a net outflow of about 9.715 billion yuan, while the inflow of allocation disk has slowed down significantly, with a net inflow of about 3.66 billion yuan. At the same time, funds going south turned into inflows, with a cumulative net inflow of about 4.972 billion yuan last week. As of February 25, the cumulative net inflow of northbound trading and allocation reached -16.576 billion yuan and 40.216 billion yuan respectively this year.
2. Industry allocation: big finance was sold off, and nonferrous metals ranked first. From an overall perspective, the net inflow of non-ferrous metals (+ 2.020 billion yuan), power equipment (+ 1.706 billion yuan) and utilities (+ 1.645 billion yuan) ranks first, and the outflow of non bank finance (- 3.374 billion yuan), banks (- 3.059 billion yuan) and food and beverage (- 2.925 billion yuan) is the largest;
From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading, the net inflow of coal (+ 1.516 billion yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of banks (- 3.709 billion yuan) is the largest; From the perspective of configuration panel, the net inflow of power equipment (+ 1.796 billion yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of automobile (- 1.030 billion yuan) is the largest.
3. Allocation of individual shares: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) increased shareholding ranks first, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decreased shareholding mostly. From an overall perspective, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 1.252 billion yuan), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (+ 829 million yuan) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (+ 816 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 3.357 billion yuan), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 2.508 billion yuan) and Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) (- 1.154 billion yuan) mostly flowed out.
From the perspective of fund type splitting, from the perspective of trading disk, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (+ 1.298 billion yuan), China stock market news (+ 896 million yuan) and China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) (+ 713 million yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 3.565 billion yuan), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 2.106 billion yuan) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (- 983 million yuan) mostly flowed out. From the perspective of configuration disk, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (+ 1.420 billion yuan), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 1.039 billion yuan) and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (+ 757 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (- 503 million yuan), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 482 million yuan) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 402 million yuan) mostly flowed out.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
