In 2021, affected by factors such as export growth exceeding expectations, the continuous enhancement of new momentum and the low base of the previous year, China's economy rebounded steadily, showing a trend of high in the first and low in the last year. After entering the third quarter, due to the superposition of multiple factors such as repeated epidemic situations, frequent floods, rising production costs and rapid cooling of the real estate market, the economic prosperity decreased significantly and the downward pressure increased significantly. It is estimated that the annual GDP will grow by about 8.1% in 2021, with an average growth of about 5.2% in two years.
Looking forward to 2022, the global economic growth slows down, the epidemic haze lingers, the supply chain repair road is long, and the international political and economic pattern accelerates. The external environment facing China's economy is still complex and changeable. From the perspective of China, the impact of the epidemic on economic operation will still exist, there are many constraints on investment growth, and the recovery of consumption still faces many difficulties. At the same time, the transformation of economic structure and the cultivation of new driving forces will be accelerated, and the general direction of China's economy towards high-quality development will not change. Overall, the situation in 2022 is more severe than that in 2021, and the annual GDP is expected to grow by about 5%.
It is suggested that macro policies should increase cross cycle regulation and multi policy coordination; Pay attention to the changes in the operating conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises, and increase policy support to ensure market players, thereby ensuring employment and people's livelihood; Pay attention to potential inflationary pressure and ensure energy security and supply chain stability; Pay attention to the changes in the real estate market, prevent the excessive real estate of the economy and the accumulation of systemic risks, and pay attention to optimizing policy means to avoid "the risk of risk disposal".
