On March 1, the National Bureau of statistics released the PMI data of February. Through this PMI data, we answer three macroeconomic questions in the first quarter: does the current demand improve or weaken month on month? Where does the current demand momentum come from? What is the impact of the rapid price rise in the upstream since the beginning of the year?
Is PMI generally good or bad this month?
PMI focuses on describing the change of economy month on month. Through PMI, we can observe the marginal changes of the current economy. After carefully excluding seasonal factors, the manufacturing PMI in February described the current macro production status, which was generally improved compared with that in January.
What is the driving force behind production improvement?
The three sub indicators of PMI this month can provide important clues for us to understand this problem. First, the performance of new orders and new export orders is good, which confirms that the export momentum is still continuing. Second, the PMI of the construction industry stabilized and verified the capital construction volume in February. It can be said that there are two demand drivers behind the improvement of production in February, one is export, the other is infrastructure. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year and January this year, exports remain strong, and the dominant marginal change is infrastructure.
What logic has the economic momentum of the first quarter verified?
This year, we have always emphasized three key nodes: steady growth of real estate, infrastructure and consumption. In the first quarter, we will see a substantial amount of infrastructure investment and further easing of real estate policy. In addition, exports remained resilient in the first quarter, and the final economic momentum transitioned from exports in the fourth quarter of last year to exports and infrastructure resonance in the first quarter of this year. At present, PMI in February has verified our previous two judgments: first, infrastructure construction is in substantial volume; Second, due to the large amount of infrastructure construction, the overall demand in the first quarter was stronger than that in the fourth quarter.
How much disturbance does the upstream price rise bring to the downstream production?
Since the beginning of this year, the prices of energy (especially crude oil) and non-ferrous metals have increased significantly. This was confirmed by the PMI raw material purchase price and ex factory price index in February.
At the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials rose again, causing market concerns. Will the price rise in the upstream once again impact the production and operation of the manufacturing industry in the middle and lower reaches? We don't think we need to worry too much at present.
First, China's industrial structure determines that the impact of rising crude oil prices on industrial enterprises is weaker than that of base metals.
Second, the upstream price rise in the third quarter of last year is not the real source of pressure on middle and downstream enterprises. The real source is the upstream price rise in the third quarter of last year. At the same time, the whole society is facing power shortage. According to the current transmission mechanism, the price rise of crude oil energy will not impact China's power supply, so it is unlikely that there will be pressure similar to that in the third quarter of last year in China's manufacturing industry this year.
Risk warning: the epidemic development exceeded expectations; Overseas demand exceeds expectations; The strength of the policy was lower than expected.
