The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in that week was 222000, and the employment situation was better than expected
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to November 27 was 222000, with an expected 240000. The previous value of 190000 was revised to 194000. Combined with the small non-agricultural data released on Wednesday, the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 534000 in November, lower than the previous value of 571000, but higher than the market expectation of 525000. On the whole, the data of initial claims for unemployment benefits and employment in the United States are better than expected, indicating that employment is continuing to repair. The non farm data also rebounded significantly in October, indicating that the employment market is continuing to recover. Structurally, although the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped to 4.6%, the labor participation rate is far lower than the level before the epidemic, and the number of job vacancies is still more than 10 million, maintaining a high level. Rising wages have also pushed labor costs and US inflation further upward, while per capita output has not increased. Recently, Powell changed the wording of inflation and cancelled the description of “temporary” inflation, and the taper speed may be accelerated. Generally speaking, the inflation pressure in the United States may be relieved in the second half of next year, but it will remain at a high level.
Another risk point is the uncertainty brought by Omicron to employment repair. However, according to the current data, the infection ability and mutation ability of most Omicron viruses are more than twice to three times that of delta viruses, but the symptoms of confirmed cases are mild. Recently, Pfizer executives said that it is expected that the vaccine efficacy will not decline significantly in the face of the mutant Omicron. GlaxoSmithKline also said recently that its cooperative research antibody is still effective against Omicron mutant virus. In the case of China, Zheng Zhongwei, leader of the vaccine research and development team of the scientific research team of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, said that China is rapidly promoting the research and development of Omicron Omicron vaccine. Therefore, the overall fermentation of covid-19 strain is still controllable and is not expected to cause systemic risks. Follow up can focus on the November non-agricultural employment report released later today. The market’s expectations for new jobs and unemployment rate are 573000 and 4.5% respectively. Can stay focused.
Increase in financing balance. On December 1, the balance of A-share financing was 1726.928 billion yuan, an increase of 3.005 billion yuan month on month; The balance of margin trading was 1853.041 billion yuan, up 379 million yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1600815 million yuan, an increase of 5.631 billion yuan month on month.
Net purchase of northbound funds. On December 2, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 3.021 billion yuan, including 54.672 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 51.651 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 155.1608 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $1.369 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $14.491 billion and a sale transaction of HK $13.122 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2137.927 billion.
Money market interest rates fell. On December 2, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.9840%, down 3.30bp, Shibor one week was 2.1000%, down 2.10bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.9615% overnight, down 3.84bp and 2.0670% a week, down 2.44bp. The 10-year yield to maturity of China national debt was 2.8401%, up 1.51bp.
All three major U.S. stocks closed higher, while European stock markets generally fell. On December 2, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 34639.79 points, up 1.82%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4577.10 points, up 1.42%; The NASDAQ index closed at 15381.32, up 0.83%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 6795.75 points, down 1.25%; Germany DAX index closed at 15263.11 points, down 1.35%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7129.21, down 0.55%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 27753.37 points, down 0.65%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 23788.93, up 0.55%.
The dollar index rose. On December 2, the dollar index rose 0.09% to 96.1246. The euro fell 0.17% against the dollar to 1.1301. The dollar rose 0.35% against the yen to 113.1800. Sterling rose 0.20% against the dollar to 1.3302. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3730, depreciating by 0.04%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3726, up 0.01%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3719, depreciating by 0.04%.
Gold fell and crude oil rose. On December 2, Comex gold futures fell 0.75% to close at US $1769.70 / ounce. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.53% to close at US $67.37/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.22% to close at US $70.47/barrel. COMEX copper futures rose 1.39% to close at US $4.2900/lb. LME copper three-month futures rose 1.03% to close at US $9470 / ton.
