In October 2021, the policy began to correct the deviation, the marginal control of energy consumption was relaxed, the coal supply was guaranteed and the price was increased, the issuance of personal housing mortgage loans was accelerated, and the financing of developers was also relaxed. This series of policy combinations cooled the risk of "quasi stagflation" facing China's economy in November. At the economic level, industrial production will recover rapidly, and "guaranteed housing" is expected to delay the decline of real estate investment, the demand for equipment renewal of manufacturing enterprises will continue to release, the physical workload in the field of infrastructure may be gradually taking shape, consumption will continue to recover slowly, the new diagnosis of overseas covid-19 will rise again, and the Christmas consumption season will support China's exports to continue to maintain a high boom, In the fourth quarter, the foundation of China's economic "small recovery" was further consolidated. Price level: PPI peaked and fell year-on-year, and the base effect + pig price stopped falling and rebounded, which promoted the CPI to rise relatively quickly, but the risk was controllable, and the price scissors converged. The cooling of the risk of "quasi stagflation" enables the policy to better focus on cross cycle regulation. While the fiscal policy is moderately strong, it will continue to accumulate power for 2022. The space for monetary policy to loosen has been gradually opened, but there is no need to "act too hastily" in the short term.
