In November, the purchasing managers’ index of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.1%, up 0.9pct from the previous month, returning to the expansion range; The non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, slightly down 0.1pct from the previous month and continued to be higher than the critical point.
1、 Manufacturing: production capacity was effectively released and prices fell sharply
The supply and demand of the manufacturing industry rebounded month on month, especially the production activities accelerated significantly, driving the rise of inventories. The manufacturing production index and new order index rose 3.6pct and 0.6pct to 52.0% and 49.4% month on month respectively, and the supply returned to the expansion range. In terms of production, due to the relaxation of the “double control” policy in November, the shortage of power supply was alleviated, and the release of capacity was accelerated compared with last month. In terms of demand, the sharp decline in raw material prices, combined with the seasonal recovery of external demand, led to the improvement of demand, and the production and operation activities of enterprises are expected to rise slightly by 0.2pct. By industry, the prosperity of upstream raw materials continues to decline, and the advantages of downstream consumer products are still. Despite the adjustment of the “double control” policy and the plunge in commodity prices, the prosperity of upstream raw materials is still low, and the PMI of ferrous metals, petroleum processing and chemical raw materials industries fell month on month, significantly lower than the average value in recent years; In the consumer category, the automobile manufacturing industry and computer communication industry continued to accelerate, the agricultural and sideline food processing and manufacturing industry entered the peak season, the demand picked up, and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was still lower than in previous years.
The import and export boom index continued to rise, and the impact of the new variant virus remains to be seen. Driven by the foreign Christmas consumption season, the new export order index rose 1.9pct to 48.5% in November compared with the previous month. Considering the liberalization of control and supply recovery in Europe and the United States, the substitution effect of China’s exports may be weakening day by day, but the recent emergence of new mutant viruses may bring new uncertainty to foreign demand. Commodity prices remained high in the first half of the month, pushing the import index up 0.6pct to 48.1%. However, as prices gradually peaked and fell, the import index may decline in the future.
