Global macro liquidity
Powell’s policy tone is “turning Eagle”, saying that high inflation is no longer “temporary”, and the taper process is expected to accelerate. Recently, Fed chairman Powell’s attitude towards inflation changed. On November 30, he said that the term “temporary” could not be used to describe inflation, and said that Omicron variant virus may continue to lead to upward inflation. Powell hinted that the taper plan may be accelerated and ended several months in advance. The possibility and details of taper acceleration will be put forward and discussed at the FOMC meeting in December. The subsequent taper schedule of the Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate on the basis of reducing bond purchases by $15 billion a month, and the interest rate hike may occur earlier than expected. With the landing of the Federal Reserve taper’s boots and the disturbance of the new variant virus on the economic recovery, the US bond yield has turned downward since November, while the US dollar index has risen rapidly due to the continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate hike.
China’s macro liquidity
In terms of volume, the social finance credit data in October stopped the downward trend, and the trend of bottoming and stabilizing was obvious. With the subsequent development of wide credit, the growth rate of social finance is expected to stabilize and recover. In mid and late November, the central bank significantly strengthened open market operation. A total of 950 billion MLF will expire in December. While fiscal expenditure will rise, we need to pay attention to the tools and rhythm of central bank policy hedging. However, at present, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, the inflationary pressure has eased, and the possibility of active easing by the central bank is increasing.
In terms of price, the market interest rate remains below the policy interest rate. In mid and late November, dr007 fluctuated narrowly around the 7-day reverse repo interest rate of 2.20%, indicating that the capital level remained relatively loose, and the tone intention of monetary policy “stable” remained unchanged. In the past two weeks, the yield of one-year interbank certificate of deposit decreased slightly and remained below the MLF interest rate. In terms of real interest rate, with new downward pressure on China’s economy, the ten bond interest rate continued its downward trend in mid and late November. On November 18, Li Keqiang revisited the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees” at the entrepreneurs’ Symposium. The Q3 goods policy report also deleted the expressions of “gate” and “flood irrigation”. The market’s expectation of stable policy growth and wide credit has been continuously strengthened, and the ten bond interest rate has continued to decline. At present, the ten bond interest rate has dropped to 2.80%, close to 25bp from the previous high.
Stock market liquidity
From the perspective of capital demand, the number of IPO companies and financing scale in the past two weeks have decreased significantly compared with the previous two weeks, the fixed increase scale has decreased significantly compared with the previous two weeks, and the net reduction scale of industrial capital has increased significantly. The pressure of lifting the ban in November was somewhat eased compared with October.
From the perspective of capital supply, in terms of new development funds, the issuance of equity funds totaled about 44.1 billion yuan in recent two weeks, and the issuance of funds has warmed up. In November, there were 29 equity funds waiting to be issued. According to the raising target, if all the funds are raised successfully, it is expected to bring about 136 billion yuan of incremental funds to the market. Recently, the financing balance continued to decline, and the net subscription of ETF increased significantly. In the past two weeks, the northward capital inflow slowed down, with a net inflow of about 15.021 billion yuan, mainly into electrical equipment and chemical industry, while household appliances and non bank were reduced by foreign capital; In the past two weeks, the southbound funds showed a net outflow trend as a whole, with a net outflow scale of about HK $325 million. In the past two weeks, southward funds mainly flowed into non bank financial, banking and other industries.
Risk appetite and valuation
In terms of risk appetite, the equity risk premium in the past two weeks was 1.77% higher than the average, maintaining a narrow range of volatility. In the past two weeks, the turnover rate of each index has remained stable as a whole, and the market trading sentiment has warmed up. The indexes of major equity funds lost the market, and the indexes of partial stock funds, stock funds and hybrid funds increased by 1.78%, 2.17% and 1.49% respectively. In the past two weeks, the number of A-Shares has continued to fluctuate, and the market structural market continues to deduce. From a global perspective, in the past two weeks, the three major U.S. indexes reached new highs, the volatility of the U.S. S. & P 500 rose significantly, the gold price and the yen index in hedge funds were differentiated, the gold price rose and fell, and the yen index continued to rise. The price of risky assets decreased significantly, the price of bitcoin fell sharply, and the yield of high-yield corporate bonds in the United States fluctuated upward.
In terms of valuation, the trading sentiment in the Chinese market has warmed up in the past two weeks, and the average p / E ratio of the whole market has rebounded. Among them, the valuation of CSI 500 and gem rebounded significantly, and the valuation of CSI 300 and CSI 50 still contracted. From the perspective of style, the valuation of the sector has rebounded in the past two weeks, and the valuation of the financial sector is still at an absolute low. In terms of the industry, the valuation of non-ferrous metals and steel increased significantly, and the valuation of leisure services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell one after another.
Risk warning: liquidity tightening exceeds expectations; Economic development is less than expected; Sino US friction eased; The epidemic worsened more than expected.
