Key investment points
Special thinking: new jobs fall, why does the expectation of interest rate increase not fall but rise?
The new non-agricultural production in the United States in November was lower than expected, the smallest increase this year. Among them, the number of new jobs in leisure hotels, education, medical care, retail and other service industries decreased significantly compared with the previous month. Labor supply in transportation and storage industry may still be insufficient. At the same time, the unemployment rate has declined significantly. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the lowest since the outbreak of the epidemic. The unemployment rate also maintained a downward trend. The trend of unemployment rate deviates from the new non-agricultural number again.
In the past, the main reason for the obvious deviation between the US unemployment rate and the new non farm income was the quarterly adjustment error and the difference between the two statistical calculation methods. However, the situation this month is slightly different from that in September. On the one hand, the number of new non-agricultural employment in most industries has decreased significantly after the quarterly adjustment, and the quarterly adjustment error may underestimate the new non-agricultural employment. On the other hand, the drop in the unemployment rate caused by the withdrawal of the unemployed from the labor market is also not the reason for the deviation of the two indicators this month. This index deviates from or is caused by statistical caliber and sampling error. In terms of statistical caliber, the population targeted by household survey and institutional survey varies greatly. In terms of sampling error, the response rate of institutional survey in November was only 65%, much lower than that in the same period of previous years. Low survey response rate may cause large sampling error. In addition, from the historical data, there are also cases where the initial value of new non-agricultural products is small and then significantly revised.
The hourly wage growth of non farm employment in the United States is stable, and U.S. inflation continues to be high. The salary level of nearly half of the industries fell year-on-year. Low income earners have the fastest wage growth, but they are also the group most affected by inflation. Although the US non farm employment in November was lower than the market expectation, there were some positive signals in the job market. After the release of non farm data, the market expected the fed to raise interest rates again in advance. The market expects that the probability that the Fed will start raising interest rates in May next year has exceeded 50%, and the probability of raising interest rates at many time points has increased.
One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the number of new cases in Europe and America remains high, and the Omicron mutant has been confirmed in many countries. In the last week, the new diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia increased by 0.85% and the new death decreased by 6%. In response to Omicron’s covid-19 mutant, Britain, Japan and France have issued entry restriction policies one after another. Many countries have confirmed the infection cases of Omicron virus strain, and there are no serious and dead cases for the time being.
Overseas: the Federal Reserve may speed up the taper process, and the United States passes the temporary spending bill. The U.S. Senate passed a temporary spending bill that will avoid a partial shutdown of the federal government this weekend. Fed chairman Powell said that high inflation is no longer a short-term phenomenon and will discuss accelerating the reduction of bond purchase at the December meeting. Mester stressed the need to prepare for several interest rate increases next year.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices fell and international oil prices fell. The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index of the Ministry of agriculture fell month on month this week. International oil prices fell this week, and the prices of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal and rebar were the same as last week.
Liquidity: the capital interest rate is divided, and the US dollar index is down. Dr001’s weekly mean value increased by 9.8bp month on month, and dr007’s weekly mean value decreased by 3bp month on month. The average dollar index fell to 96.1.
Performance of major categories of assets: A-Shares continued to rise and treasury bond interest rates fell. A-Shares continued to rise this week, while other Asian markets also rose, while major indexes of us and Hong Kong stocks fell. In terms of China’s rights and interests, architectural decoration led the rise. The weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fell by 1.8bp this week.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
