Core view:
In 2021, China’s crude oil demand fell for the first time, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. In 2021, China processed 704 million tons of crude oil, with a year-on-year increase of 4.32%; The demand for crude oil was 709 million tons, down 3.58% year-on-year, the first decline in nearly 20 years, mainly due to the decline in crude oil imports; The output was 199 million tons, increasing for three consecutive years, with a year-on-year increase of 2.08%; Imported crude oil was 513 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.42%; The degree of external dependence reached 71.95%, down 1.88 percentage points from the previous year, and continued to maintain an all-time high.
In 2021, China’s natural gas demand grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. In 2021, China’s natural gas demand was about 368.4 billion m3, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; The output was 205.3 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 8.72%; The import of natural gas was 168.7 billion m3, with a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, mainly due to the large purchase of LNG to ensure energy supply; The degree of external dependence reached a new annual high of 44.3%, an increase of 2.39 percentage points over the previous year.
In 2021, China’s refined oil demand increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate of chemical products demand slowed down. In 2021, China’s refined oil output was 357 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%; The demand for refined oil was 320 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% and an increase of 3.06% over 2019. Demand performance continued to differentiate, with gasoline demand of 140 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%; Diesel demand was 147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; The demand for kerosene was 32.25 million tons, which continued to grow negatively, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. The annual export volume reached 40.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%, mainly due to the impact of lower export profits on export enthusiasm and the improvement of China’s demand. The demand growth of PE, PP, PX, eg, PTA and other major chemical products slowed down in 2021, which is related to the high demand base of chemical products in 2020.
In February, the oil price continued to rise. The tension between Russia and Ukraine and the concerns of supply interruption caused by the escalation of sanctions against Russia by European and American countries stimulated the continuous rise of international oil prices. The monthly average prices of Brent and WTI are US $94.16/barrel and US $91.60/barrel respectively. OPEC + production in January was still lower than expected, and the freezing crack of some oil production facilities caused by the extremely cold weather in the United States in early February affected the production; The more important factor to stimulate oil prices is the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. On February 24, Russia took military action against Ukraine. On February 26, the United States, France, Germany and other countries and the European Commission decided to exclude some Russian banks from the global Interbank Financial Communication Association (Swift) system, and imposed restrictive measures on the Central Bank of Russia to stimulate the continuous rise of international oil prices, Brent crude oil broke the $100 / barrel mark at the end of the month.
Since the beginning of the year, the yield of petrochemical industry is 0.4%, which is better than the whole market, ranking 19th among 109 secondary sub industries. As of October 28, the overall valuation of petrochemical sector was 69m (TTM). We are optimistic about the top enterprises with increased performance due to business layout and scale expansion, and focus on satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ).
Risk tip: the risk of continuous decline of oil price, the risk of decline of industry prosperity, the risk of lower than expected revenue, etc.
