Event overview:
In February 2022, the delivery volume of new forces was released. According to the data disclosed by various companies: 6131 Weilai vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.9% and a month on month increase of – 36.5%; 6225 Xiaopeng vehicles, up + 180.0% year on year and – 51.8% month on month; Ideal 8414 vehicles, year-on-year + 265.8%, month on month – 31.4%; 2916 polar krypton vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 17.4%; 8526 ea’an vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 162.8% and a month on month increase of – 46.8%.
Analysis and judgment:
The off-season is not light, and the demand toughness is obvious
The delivery of new forces is not light in the off-season, and continues to improve year-on-year. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, February is the off-season of sales, and the new forces have achieved growth year-on-year. On a month on month basis, we expect that the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars in February will decline by 35% – 40% on a month on month basis, and the performance of new forces will converge with the industry as a whole.
The products are continuously driven, and the demand toughness is highlighted. At present, most of the new forces have a long collection cycle, so the delivery in February is mainly affected by the production scheduling plan. At the demand level, new forces have obvious advantages over fuel vehicles at the same price. From the total sales performance from January to February, Weilai / ideal / Xiaopeng have a year-on-year increase of + 23.3%, + 132.4% and + 169.3% respectively.
The structure began to differentiate, and the second echelon continued to make efforts
The structure of new energy passenger vehicles is differentiated, and the annual demand for economic electric vehicles is expected to be under pressure. Affected by the refund and subsidy of new energy vehicles and the rise of raw materials this year, new forces transmit pressure through price increases and tightening discounts. We believe that the refund and subsidy has a certain impact on the main economic products such as A0 and A00. According to the data of 2021, it accounts for about 30% of the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the whole year. The Zero run of the main small and micro cars was greatly affected in February, with the delivery of 3435 vehicles in February, a month on month increase of – 57.5%. The price of mainstream electric vehicles is concentrated in the range of more than 150000 yuan, the terminal has higher acceptance of price adjustment, and the phenomenon of product force driving is obvious. We believe that in the short term, the wait-and-see phenomenon of medium and high-end electric vehicles will increase due to price adjustment and discount tightening. Throughout the year, the demand is expected to maintain rapid growth under the main theme of product force driving.
New energy of traditional automobile enterprises: stable delivery performance, continuous efforts of new product introduction and intellectualization. According to the disclosed data, gac-ea delivered 8526 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 162.8% and a month on month increase of – 46.8%; Polar krypton delivered 2916 vehicles, a month on month increase of – 17.4%. The delivery of polar krypton 001 has exceeded 12000 in five months after its listing, and the first major OTA upgrade was pushed to all users in February, and the intellectualization was upgraded again. The completion of phase II capacity expansion in ea’an can increase the production efficiency by 45%. This year’s new model aion LX plus was launched in January, with a new family design and a maximum endurance of more than 1000km. While improving the product matrix, it accelerates the high-end layout.
Electrification enters from 1 to N, and intelligence starts the competition in the second half
From January to February this year, the total sales volume of the top three new forces still increased rapidly, taking the lead in the first half competition dominated by electrification. Many new cars will be delivered this year and enter the development stage from 1 to N:
1) Weilai et7 is expected to be delivered on March 28 this year, with a starting price of 448000 yuan, facing the high-end pure electric car market. Et5 is expected to be delivered in September. The starting price before the subsidy under the battery rental scheme is 258000 yuan. While carrying the power of Weilai luxury brand, it accelerates the driving of walking volume. Both vehicles are at the leading level of the same level in terms of intelligent configuration.
2) Xiaopeng flagship SUV Xiaopeng G9 was unveiled in Guangzhou at the end of 2021, with a positioning higher than P7, which will fill the vacancy of medium and large SUV products of the brand. G9 intelligent configuration has been upgraded again. It is the first mass production vehicle equipped with xpilot 4.0 function, which is expected to be on the market in the third quarter of this year.
3) ideal X01 is expected to be released in the second quarter of this year and is expected to be delivered in the third quarter. X01 is positioned as a full-size SUV, and the body size is larger than the ideal one. According to the company’s performance press conference, compared with the ideal one, X01 is expected to be significantly upgraded in terms of sensor configuration and safety redundancy, and is expected to be equipped with L4 automatic driving hardware. In addition, the company expects to launch two pure electric models in 2023 and effectively shorten the charging time through ultra-high voltage charging solutions.
Differentiation has become the new focus of competition among automobile enterprises, and the intellectualization of new forces continues to advance: 1) intelligent driving, self-developed L4 automatic driving technology, and mass production of lidar front loading have almost become the “standard” of new models. At the same time, Weilai and Xiaopeng are also one of the first car companies to implement the software charging model, building another profit growth point; 2) Intelligent cockpit, self-developed customized operating system, build the bottom ecology, and one core and multiple screens help the hardware interaction and cooperation.
Electric acceleration + Intelligent start reshaping the Centennial industrial pattern
The global new energy vehicle industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of “electric acceleration + Intelligent opening”. The trillion market has been opened, the traditional car enterprises have actively transformed, and the new forces of car manufacturing and technology Internet enterprises (Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, Dajiang, etc.) have accelerated their entry to promote the prosperity and development of the industry.
(1) vehicle level: in the process of rapid capacity expansion of the industry, the new power brands represented by Weilai make full use of Internet thinking and select tracks to break through. Although Baidu, Xiaomi and other new entrants launch their models late, the complete industrial chain is expected to build a late development advantage at that time, and their own brands will usher in historic opportunities;
(2) parts level: with the development of electric intelligence and the reshaping of the whole zero relationship, there is a wide space for domestic substitution of independent parts suppliers. Some parts enterprises with strong technology R & D capability are expected to rise to the leading of global subdivided industries through globalization based on the Chinese market. At the same time, the entry of Huawei, Dajiang and other technology enterprises will also accelerate the reconstruction of the industry pattern, and the serious imbalance between the status of China’s vehicle industry and the status of parts industry is expected to be alleviated.
Investment suggestions:
In 2022, the launch of new powerful new products was accelerated, and the product power continued to drive the growth of demand. Since the second quarter of this year, Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal will usher in a new product cycle, and the intelligent configuration will be further upgraded. From the perspective of channel construction and capacity launch of new forces this year, we believe that the new product cycle is expected to drive the rapid increase of sales of new forces this year. The change of electric intelligence will promote the great change of vehicle business model, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of valuation. Benefit target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H]. Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order and firmly looks at multiple parts. The qualitative change at the supply side of new forces and traditional car enterprises continued to advance. In the first half, the trend of electrification has been determined. In the second half, intelligent competition has opened, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit have accelerated together, and electric intelligence has reshaped the industrial order. Rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened. The accelerated growth of sales volume drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper.
It is recommended that [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ] with greater flexibility and [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of intelligent electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises are increasing intelligent electric configuration and expect to achieve brand improvement: preferred acoustics – [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], chassis by wire – [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller – [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass – [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting – [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ] Smart seat – [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior – [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ], platform – [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ]. Double carbon pressure superimposed electric vehicle weight reduction drives the improvement of endurance, and there is a wide space for vehicle lightweight. It is recommended that [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], and the beneficiary object [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
Risk tips
The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; The failure to strictly implement laws and regulations such as points and carbon emissions has led to the launch progress of new energy and new models of automobile enterprises not reaching the expectation; The impact of chip shortage.
