Key investment points:
The global epidemic has accelerated and worsened, and Omicron infection cases have occurred in more than 20 countries
About 632000 cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly diagnosed this week, Compared with last week (about 582000 cases) worsened again, and the number of people fully vaccinated accounted for about 43.6%. Specifically, the epidemic situation in European countries intensified, Russia and Germany improved slightly, the epidemic situation in Britain and Italy continued to worsen, the average number of new diagnoses in France doubled again, the number of new confirmed diagnoses in the United States increased significantly this Sunday, and the vaccine coverage rate was still less than 60%. The epidemic situation in Japan remained stable and the epidemic situation in South Korea remained stable It continues to deteriorate and the epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries has improved. Meanwhile, more than 20 countries, including the United States, have confirmed Omicron infection cases this week. Global risk aversion has increased and border control has tightened. Japan, Israel and Morocco have begun to implement a comprehensive travel ban to guard against further impact on the global supply chain.
The PMI of the United States rose in November, and the employment data was lower than expected. It was difficult to change and accelerate the taper plan
In November, the manufacturing PMI of the United States rose to 61.1, the output index rose to 61.5 from 59.3, the new order index rose to 61.5 from 59.8, and the customer inventory index fell sharply from 31.7 to 25.1, which may reflect that the consumption peak seasons such as Thanksgiving and “black five” have driven the strength of U.S. market demand, boosted manufacturing production and continued to reduce inventory. The price index fell to 82.4 from 85.7, or mainly affected by the landing of the Federal Reserve’s taper boots. But overall, inflation remains high and the probability will continue. Meanwhile, the PMI of the US service industry rose from 66.7 to 69.1 in November, mainly due to the recovery of business activities and the improvement of employment. ADP employment increased by 534000 in November, higher than market expectations, But compared with the previous value (570000) fell slightly, with 210000 new non-agricultural jobs, far lower than the market expected value of 550000 and the previous value of 546000. The decline of new jobs in service production departments such as retail, leisure and hotel industry may be the main drag. In addition to seasonal factors, the impact of the epidemic on Residents’ willingness to work in the service industry can not be ignored. The average hourly salary is still rising, and the superimposed unemployment rate continues to improve Good, non-agricultural less than expected or difficult to change the Fed’s accelerated taper plan.
CPI in the euro area rises again, and the upward pressure on prices remains high
In November, the CPI of the eurozone increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, all of which rose again compared with the previous value. In November, the CPI of France, Italy, Spain and Germany rose again year-on-year, and the upward pressure on prices under the supply bottleneck and energy crisis remained high. The European Central Bank said it would still maintain the leniency policy.
Performance of major global assets this week
U.S. stocks fell sharply this week under the influence of the epidemic, the non-agricultural data were lower than expected, Powell’s hawkish remarks and other factors. Major European stock indexes rose more, emerging markets fell more, the global energy sector recovered, and non daily consumer goods led the decline again. The long-term yield of US bonds continued to fall. The US dollar index closed slightly higher, the RMB continued to be strong, the price of precious metals fell again, and the price of natural gas fell sharply.
