The price of bulk raw materials continued to rise. The cost of raw materials is the main component of the cost of household appliances. Since 2022, the price of bulk raw materials has continued to rise, and the cost pressure of household appliance enterprises is still on. In February, the average monthly prices of copper, aluminum and rebar rose by 1.65%, 8.58% and 4.13% month on month, among which the price of aluminum increased significantly. In terms of year-on-year growth rate, the monthly average price of copper, aluminum and rebar increased by 17.51%, 56.72% and 8.54% year-on-year. Among them, the increase range of aluminum and rebar increased, and the increase range of copper decreased slightly.
Air conditioning production and sales fell. In January 2022, 13.07 million household air conditioners were produced, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, and 13.31 million units were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, 5.59 million units were shipped for domestic sales, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, and 7.73 million units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the pace of production and sales of air conditioners in January and February of each year changes relatively greatly. From the data of production and sales of air conditioners in January alone, the production and sales decline. The main reason is that some enterprises take factory holidays in late January, and the overall effective working hours are less than last year, which affects the production pace.
Both internal and external sales of ice washing decreased. In January, the sales volume of refrigerators was 7.1226 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31%, of which the domestic and export sales decreased by 9.4% and 4.8% respectively, and the sales volume of washing machines was 6.726 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, of which the domestic and foreign sales decreased by 8.5% and 3.8% respectively. In terms of growth rate, both domestic and foreign sales of ice washing fell year-on-year, but we believe that the year-on-year decline of domestic sales is mainly affected by the Spring Festival, which needs to be judged as a whole in combination with the data in February. In the long run, the domestic shipments of ice washing are relatively stable, and there is little pressure on domestic sales in 2022.
The home appliance index fell in February. In February, Shenwan household appliance index fell 4.79%, ranking 28th among Shenwan’s 28 first-class industries, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (0.39%), and the industry price earnings ratio (TTM) was 16.4, lower than the historical average of 21.52 since 2006, in a medium and low position. The industry P / E ratio (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) is 3.57 units lower than the historical average since 2005. The valuation premium rate of home appliance sector (excluding bank shares from a shares) was – 17.85%, and the historical average was – 11.1%.
Investment suggestion: looking forward to 2022, the shipment of traditional household appliances is expected to remain relatively stable, and the subdivided categories such as clean appliances, integrated stoves and dishwashers are expected to maintain a high atmosphere. The rising pressure of raw material prices will slow down, and the profitability of household appliance enterprises will be improved. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines. First, traditional household appliance leaders benefiting from the improvement of fundamentals are recommended Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) and Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . 2、 Pay attention to the leading industry segments with high prosperity, and recommend Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) .
Risk warning: risk of raw material price change; Risk of declining prosperity of emerging categories; The risk of intensified industry competition.
