In November, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, which returned above the boom and bust line. The Bureau of Statistics announced that China’s official manufacturing PMI in November was 50.1, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month, above the critical point, and the manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range; The PMI of non manufacturing industry was 52.3, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month; The comprehensive PMI output index was 52.2, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month. The above indexes are in the expansion range, indicating that China’s economic prosperity has rebounded on the whole.
Power supply has improved and manufacturing production capacity has been released. From the perspective of sub indicators, PMI ex factory price index and PMI purchase price index of main raw materials were 48.9 and 52.9 respectively, both of which fell sharply by more than 10 percentage points compared with the previous month. The PMI production index rose 3.6 percentage points to 52 from the previous month, returning to above the boom and bust line. The new order index was 49.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range. PMI employee index, PMI supplier delivery time index and PMI finished product inventory index increased by 0.1, 1.5 and 1.6 percentage points respectively to 48.9, 48.2 and 47.9 respectively. On the whole, the main reason is that under the combination of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the price of upstream raw materials decreased, the tension of power supply eased in November, promoted the release of manufacturing production capacity, and the business prosperity level of enterprises improved. However, domestic demand is still weak, and the delivery time of suppliers has accelerated under the shopping festival.
The margin of import and export rebounded, and external demand still formed support. PMI’s new export orders and PMI’s import orders index rebounded for two consecutive months, 48.5 and 48.1 respectively. The outlook for foreign trade import and export is still high. With the advent of the peak export season of European and American black five Christmas goods and the overseas fermentation of Omicron covid-19 virus strain, foreign demand may still form a certain support for China’s foreign trade export.
The non manufacturing sector has maintained a stable recovery, and infrastructure and real estate have improved. In terms of non manufacturing business activity index, PMI construction industry index increased by 2.2 percentage points to 59.1. In terms of sub items, the prosperity of infrastructure construction and real estate completion has improved. However, the PMI service industry fell slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 51.1, falling for two consecutive months. In late October and early November, the epidemic broke out in some areas of China, affecting the catering and aviation industry. In the future, the winter influenza virus is easier to spread. Under the influence of the epidemic, the recovery power of domestic demand still needs to be strengthened.
Overall, the PMI index in November was slightly better than the market expectation, indicating that China’s economic resilience still exists. Superimposing the marginal improvement signals of real estate development loans and personal mortgage housing loans since November, the end of real estate policy gradually appeared, releasing a certain stabilizing signal. The diffusion of covid-19 strain Omicron is still supported by external demand, and the export is still resilient, which promotes the repair of enterprise production capacity and the rise of inventory. Although new orders picked up in November, they are still in the contraction range, indicating insufficient demand. It is expected that the domestic demand in December may still be weak, and the PMI is a month on month concept. The sustainability of the supporting effect of the low base may be limited, and the downward pressure on the economy remains. The improvement sustainability of infrastructure investment and real estate rectification needs to be further observed.
