research conclusion
Event: on November 30, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest China purchasing manager index. In October, the manufacturing PMI index recorded 50.1% (the former value was 49.2%), the non manufacturing business activity index recorded 52.3% (the former value was 52.4%), and the comprehensive PMI output index recorded 52.2% (the former value was 50.8%).
The manufacturing PMI index returns to the expansion range. The most obvious improvement in the sub item comes from the production end, which corresponds to the fading of the impact of temporary power constraints on enterprise production; Both internal and external demand recovered, but the improvement of domestic demand did not exceed the seasonality. The manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.1% (the previous value was 49.2%), ending two consecutive months of contraction, indicating a "double limit" from September to October The impact of policy and power shortage on the economy has basically come to an end, the production situation of enterprises has improved significantly, and the PMI production index has increased significantly by 3.6 percentage points to 52% over the previous month. At the demand level, the index of new orders and new export orders rebounded: the index of new orders was 49.4%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, The rebound did not exceed the seasonality (an average rebound of 0.6 percentage points from 2016 to November 2019). The rebound in demand at the end of the year was related to the traditional peak season of some consumer goods manufacturing industries. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the new order index of agricultural and non-staple food processing, food, wine, beverage, refined tea and other industries rose to more than 55.0% in November, while the price rise was superimposed with "double control" The policy has led to weak demand in some high energy consuming industries, and industries such as chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing are in the low range of less than 43.0%. The new export order index was 48.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous month, and the rebound was more than seasonal (the average in 2016-2019 was 0.92 percentage points). We believe that the marginal improvement of the new export order index shows that the export is still strong at the end of the year.
The purchase price index and ex factory price index have fallen sharply, of which the ex factory price index has fallen below the critical point, and the inflection point of upstream price may have appeared. The purchase price index and ex factory price index were 52.9% and 48.9% respectively, 19.2 and 12.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing and other industries with the largest price increase in the early stage fell significantly and have fallen below the critical point. The simultaneous decline of demand and price in some high energy consuming industries means that high prices have been unsustainable, and the inflection point of PPI may have appeared.
The fall of the price index has eased the pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises, and the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 50.2%, 51.2% and 48.5% respectively, which were basically the same as last month, up 2.6 and 1 percentage point respectively.
The multi-point epidemic has once again impacted the service industry, and the construction industry has accelerated its expansion, reflecting that the expectation of accelerating the progress of infrastructure construction at the end of the year is being fulfilled. The PMI index of the service industry was 51.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the business activity index of the life service industry closely related to contact consumption fell below the critical point. From the impact of the multi-point epidemic in the past few rounds, each round of epidemic rebound dragged down the recovery of consumption, and this round is no exception. The construction business activity index and new order index were 59.1% and 54.2% respectively, of which the civil engineering construction business activity index and new order index increased by 5.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively over the previous month, indicating that the infrastructure progress is accelerating at the end of the year. Since the fourth quarter, major projects in many places have been advancing rapidly, which is expected to support the economic growth in the fourth quarter.
Risk tips:
Macro policy changes exceeded expectations; The mutant virus spread rapidly and impacted the economy.
