\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.90%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 197 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 82.30%.
The quadratic curve of “energy +” matrix and channels + products boost the rapid growth of revenue. The nationwide construction of the company was accelerated. In the past 21 years, the national marketing headquarters achieved a revenue of 3.002 billion yuan (+ 53.63%), accounting for 43.10% (+ 352 PCTs). In terms of sub regions, East China / Southwest China / North China / Central China achieved sales revenue of RMB 772 / 432 / 339 / 753 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 79.07% / 65.37% / 45.00% / 44.32%. In terms of channels, the company accelerated the development of traditional / special / modern channels to improve the overall market rate. In terms of products, Dongpeng special drink accounted for 94.66% of the revenue, and the revenue of large single product 500ml gold bottle was 5.024 billion, accounting for 76.22%, with excellent continuous volume performance. The company gradually built a “Dongpeng energy +” product matrix with Dongpeng special drink as the core. In April / September / December, the company launched “Dongpeng 0 sugar special drink” / “Dongpeng big coffee” low sugar shake latte / “Daneng” fruit juice energy drink respectively. New products came out one after another, and the secondary growth curve of energy storage company.
Large quantities of single products push up the gross profit margin, and the cost investment takes a long-term view. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 44.37% (+ 0.51pcts) in 21 years, and 47.34% (+ 0.74pcts) after excluding the impact of changes in accounting policies. The main reason is that the proportion of income of 500ml gold bottles continues to rise, and the price of polyester chips, a bulk raw material, is locked in advance (- 12.03%). The rates of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses were 19.61% / 3.61% / – 0.16% / 0.61% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -1.37 / – 0.1 / + 0.16 / – 0.11pcts; The net interest rate is 17.10% (- 1.25 PCTs). The main cost investment is to increase brand promotion after listing, increase the investment of freezers, promote the nationalization strategy and improve personnel salary. Looking at the long-term development, the profitability is expected to remain stable. After deducting the investment income of the company’s private equity fund, the company’s non net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 1.084 billion yuan (+ 34.71%), and the profit side was slightly under pressure. From Q4, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 28.22% (- 2.60pcts), and the pressure came from the increase in the cost of white granulated sugar and PET bottle packaging materials.
Channel development has helped the national expansion, and the product matrix has continued to grow. In terms of channels, the company adopts the circulation mode of all channels intensive cultivation of mature market + blank market. On the one hand, the company accelerates the development of national market, improves the distribution system, develops terminal outlets and strengthens the delivery of freezers to promote the rapid growth of sales volume; On the other hand, based on the base camp of Guangdong, the traditional strong areas were intensively cultivated. Guangdong catering area was established in 22 years, focusing on the layout of catering channels. In addition, lay the foundation for national capacity expansion. In terms of products, the “Dongpeng energy +” product matrix has been formed by large single product volume + new product expansion, the product structure has been continuously optimized, and the product power and market share have been continuously improved. Looking forward to 22 years, with the acceleration of the company’s nationalization process and the dual engine force of channel + product matrix, the company is expected to enter and stay in the fast lane of development for a long time.
Profit forecast: due to the pressure of raw material cost in the company for 22 years, the profit forecast is slightly updated. It is estimated that the company’s revenue will be adjusted from RMB 8.946/11.901 billion to RMB 8.992/11.362 billion from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 28.86% / 26.36%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be adjusted from RMB 1.530/2.105 billion to RMB 1.510/1.960 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.55% / 29.84%, EPS was 3.77/4.90 yuan respectively, maintaining the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk tips: the promotion of new products is less than expected, the national expansion is less than expected, food safety risks, etc
