\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Events
On February 27, 2022, Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) released the performance express for 21 years. The report showed that the revenue of Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) 2021 was RMB 15.353 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.63%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.078 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.53%.
Comments
The number of members maintained a rapid growth in the past 21 years, and the advertising revenue increased by 31.75% year-on-year due to the impact of scheduling: according to the company's performance express, the number of effective members reached 50.4 million at the end of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, maintaining a high-speed growth, and the member revenue increased by 13.3% year-on-year to 3.688 billion yuan. With the company's announcement of raising the prices of some members from January 2, 22, the member revenue in the past 22 years is expected to accelerate. In 21 years, the advertising revenue reached 5.453 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.75%, of which 2h21 advertising revenue was about 2.311 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. We believe that due to scheduling and other reasons, the popular variety "big detective 7" was put on line in 22q1, resulting in less popular variety in Q4.
The popular film and television drama Shangshi in Q1 performed well, and the focus on popular variety shows was on the launch of q2-q3. According to Guduo data, "Shangshi" was launched on February 22 and ranked second in the popularity of film and television dramas on the whole network as of February 27. According to the scheduled schedule of variety shows, it is expected that the following popular variety shows will focus on the launch of q2-q3, which is expected to further promote the continuous growth of the number of members.
Member income is expected to be warmed up from January 2. Since 21 years, video platforms including Tencent video and iqiyi have raised prices. According to the company's announcement, the price increase was implemented on January 2, in which the price of IOS terminal for monthly package, quarterly package, annual package and annual card increased by 6% / 9% / 5% / 9% respectively. We believe that the price increase trend of the industry and the price increase of members will contribute to the continuous recovery of the income of members of the company.
Investment advice
The launch of q2-q3 popular variety shows and the increase of members' prices in 22 years are expected to promote the recovery of advertising and members' income. However, it is expected that the new businesses such as Xiaomang e-commerce and mcity will still be in the period of accelerated promotion in 22-23 years, with increased launch costs and no profit contribution. We have reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company by 15.9% / 16.3% in 2022 / 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21-23 years to 21.14/25.333018 billion yuan respectively, The corresponding EPS is 1.13/1.35/1.61 yuan and the corresponding P / E is 30.21x/25.21x/21.16x, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The performance of film and television dramas and variety shows is less than expected; Advertising investment is less than expected; Membership growth is less than expected; Industry policy risk
