\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 179 Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) )
Revenue side: Tesla / Chery contributed the main increment
The company achieved a revenue of 4.61 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3%. The revenue growth of the company mainly benefited from the remarkable effect of passenger car expansion. The revenue of Geely / Chery / Tesla in 2021 was 980 / 770 / 500 million yuan respectively, and Chery / Tesla contributed 340 / 500 million yuan respectively. In the single quarter of 21q4, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-month increase of 20.6% / 34.6%. The month-on-month increase of Q4 was mainly due to the increase in the demand of main downstream customers. The sales of Chery / Geely / Tesla Shanghai modely, the main customers of 21q4, were 31.0/40.761000 vehicles respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 37.3% / 39.8% / 52.5%. We expect that the company's business will further expand in 2022. 1) Tesla's four major global factories will expand production simultaneously, and the annual sales volume is expected to be 1.8-2 million; 2) With the ease of core shortage, the demand of existing customers will grow steadily; 3) In the past 21 years, due to the systematic influence of the industry, the sales volume of heavy trucks decreased by 17.7% year-on-year. China's top five large and medium-sized heavy truck enterprises Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) , BAIC Futian, Shaanxi heavy truck, Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) , Dongfeng Automobile Co.Ltd(600006) , etc. are the company's customers. With the recovery of heavy truck market, the company's revenue will improve in 2022.
Profit side: rising raw material prices and short-term pressure on profitability
The company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 21.3%, down 1.7pct year-on-year, mainly due to the rise of raw materials. In terms of products, the gross profit margin of instrument panel assembly decreased by 3.6pct and that of top cabinet assembly decreased by 5.7pct. The gross profit margin in Q4 was 20.8% in a single quarter, down 2.6pct year-on-year and up 2.1pct month on month. The month on month increase was mainly due to 1) the prices of raw materials such as PC, ABS and steel began to fall in 21q4; 2) The proportion of revenue from major new energy customers with good profitability increased. During 21q4, the expense rate was 15.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of 2.5% in R & D rate, the net interest rate of 21q4 was 4.4%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and the net profit of Q4 was 60 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 34%.
Further release of customer + capacity to meet high growth
In 2021, the capacity utilization rate of large / medium parts of the company was 82.9% / 93.3% respectively. The company actively expanded its production capacity outside China to cope with the growth of customer demand. In China base, the company will add 280000 sets of instrument panel assemblies, 150000 sets of door inner guard assemblies, 150000 sets of column guard assemblies and 20000 sets of overhead filing cabinet assemblies in Xi'an, and 500000 sets of instrument panel assemblies and Production capacity of 150000 sets of door inner guard assembly; In foreign markets, the company increased capital for its Mexican subsidiary and set up a new North American subsidiary. Mexico added 250000 sets of instrument panel assemblies and 1.7 million seat backboards, supporting the global expansion of well-known electric vehicle brands in North America. Previously, customers were mainly Geely, SAIC, Chery, etc. in recent years, we have expanded customers to Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , great wall, etc. we believe that with cost control, strong response ability and localized production expansion, the company will further deepen its cooperation with new global forces and China's head, and is expected to grow into a leading enterprise of China's automotive interior parts in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
As a new upstart in automobile interior decoration, the company has bound large new energy customers to increase rapidly. With the growth of downstream customers and the performance of designated companies for new projects, the performance release will slow down due to the systematic impact of heavy trucks and raw materials in 21 years. However, we believe that with the further increase of new energy customer orders, the company will enter a rapid growth stage in 2022. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the revenue will be 7.03/85.6/10.7 billion yuan, the yoy will be 52.45% / 21.70% / 24.99% respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.5/7.1/920 million yuan, and the yoy will be 93.94% / 29.00% / 29.71% respectively, corresponding to pe27.00% 8 / 21.5 / 16.6x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of downstream customers was lower than expected, the price of raw materials rose sharply, and the demand for passenger cars was lower than expected.
