China’s macroeconomic summary
By the end of September 2021, China’s green credit scale ranks first in the world. The balance of green credit of 21 major banking institutions in China has reached 14.08 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 21% over the beginning of the year; The overall asset quality is good, and the non-performing rate of green loans has always been maintained below 0.5%, which is far lower than the overall non-performing credit level of commercial banks. The environmental benefits of green credit have gradually emerged. Since 2021, the proportion of green credit in the total credit scale has exceeded 7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the end of 2018. It mainly focuses on green transportation, green energy and strategic emerging industries, with more investment in transportation and energy.
The rapid development of green credit is inseparable from the innovation of pledge guarantee methods: in addition to general collateral such as fixed assets, some banks innovate pledge / collateral in combination with their own development characteristics, including pledge of future usufruct of contract energy management projects, pledge of carbon assets, pledge of franchise rights, pledge of emission rights, etc, Among them, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) launched China’s first carbon emission right pledge loan business (2012), Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) issued China’s first CCER pledge loan related to China’s certified emission reduction (2014), and the people’s Bank of China launched China’s first new energy vehicle integral usufruct pledge loan (2021).
Overseas macro summary
Global stock markets: last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that “temporary” high inflation needs to be removed. At present, it seems that high inflation may continue. At the same time, the non-agricultural data was far less than the market expectation, with only 210000 people announced, far lower than the 550000 people expected by the market. The three major US stock indexes rebounded slightly and fell again. The NASDAQ fell the most last week, up to 2.62%, the S & P 500 fell 1.22%, and the Dow fell slightly by 0.91%. The European stock market stabilized slightly, with FTSE 100 closing up 1.11%, France closing up 0.38% and Germany falling 0.57%. In Asian stock markets, the Nikkei closed down 2.51%, South Korea closed up 1.09%, and the Hang Seng Index fell sharply, reaching 1.3%. Emerging markets stopped falling and rebounded. The Brazilian market rose as high as 2.78%, the Indian index rose 1.03% and Russia rose 2.68. MSCI index fell across the board, with MSCI in developed markets down 1.36%, emerging markets down 0.11% and Asia Pacific down 0.97%. At present, the market is hovering repeatedly between the expectation of the Fed raising interest rates in advance and the weakening of the epidemic again, and the market volatility is more intense.
Bond market: due to Powell’s hawkish speech and weak performance of non-agricultural data, the ten-year US bond yield quickly fell to 1.35%, and the pressure above us long-term bonds is more obvious; German bond yields were basically flat, down slightly by three BP to – 0.4%, and Japan’s ten-year bond yields remained at 0.08%. The yield of two-year US bonds rose sharply, and the short-term inflation expectation rose rapidly, rising by 10 bps to close at 0.6%, and the US bond term spread narrowed by 23 bps to 0.75%.
Foreign exchange market: the US dollar index basically maintained a volatile trend and finally closed at 96.1715, rising slightly. Both the Australian dollar and the British pound depreciated significantly against the US dollar. The Australian dollar fell by as much as 1.64%, the British pound fell by 0.78%, the euro fell slightly by 0.07%, the Japanese yen rose slightly by 0.49% against the US dollar, and the RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar by 0.26%. The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rose, but the European Central Bank said it would not follow, leading to the strengthening of the dollar.
