\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 032 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) )
Event: the company released the annual performance express of 2021, and it is expected to achieve a revenue of 21.585 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 16.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%.
Comments:
The company's domestic online channels have been successfully transformed, and the transfer of export SEB orders has brought about increment. In Q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.82%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 703 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 8.10%, with a month on month increase of 1.3pct (Q3 single quarter growth rate of - 9.40%). We believe that the main reasons for the good growth of the company's operating revenue in the same period are as follows: first, due to the successful implementation of the transformation strategy from domestic sales to online channels, the optimization of online product sales structure drives the growth of domestic sales revenue; Second, the rapid growth of the company's export SEB order transfer has driven the rise of overseas demand. In October 2021, the company announced that it would increase the amount related to SEB transactions in 2021 to 7.028 billion yuan, which is + 5.44% compared with the estimate at the beginning of the year. With the joint efforts of domestic and foreign sales, the company's overall revenue grew steadily.
The high price of raw materials and the increase of marketing expenses put pressure on the profit side of the company in the short term. The price of raw materials is still at a high level, with a slight increase in the year-on-year sales expense rate, which puts great pressure on the company's cost. On the one hand, the sharp rise in the price of large raw materials such as copper, aluminum and stainless steel has led to a decrease in the company's comprehensive gross profit margin of 0.38pct in the current period; On the other hand, the company increased the investment in marketing resources such as e-commerce promotion expenses and advertising expenses, resulting in an increase in the sales expense rate of 0.47pct in this period. In the future, with the stabilization of raw material prices and the increase of the proportion of high gross profit products brought by the optimization of product structure, the profitability of the company is expected to be further improved.
The stock incentive plan binds the interests of the company and employees, which is conducive to the long-term and stable development of the company. In December 2021, the company launched the restricted stock incentive plan, which granted 1209500 restricted shares to a total of 293 incentive objects, including middle and senior managers, core technicians and other employees of the company. The incentive plan involves a substantial increase in the number of people and a wider range of incentive objects, which helps the company attract and retain talents in various fields and is conducive to the long-term and stable development of the company
Investment suggestion: the reform of domestic sales channels is becoming more and more effective, and sufficient export orders are expected to drive the release of performance flexibility and maintain the "buy" rating. The company is an advantageous enterprise of small household appliances in China. It continues to be enabled by the expansion of new categories and channel optimization. SEB's order transfer is expected to drive the stable growth of the company's overseas revenue, and the company has strong long-term development strength. Considering the short-term pressure on the company from the cost side of raw materials, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be RMB 2.3642665 billion respectively (the original forecast value is RMB 2.403/2.709 billion respectively), corresponding to 18 / 16 times of the current market value PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the development of new products is less than expected, the epidemic situation in China is repeated, and the price of raw materials is rising.
