\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 511 C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) )
Main points:
Event: the company released the 2021 performance express.
The company expects to achieve a revenue of 9.194 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 17.52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 582 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.8%. In terms of Q4 alone, the company's Q4 is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.919 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7% and a month on month increase of 44.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 98 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.3% and a month on month increase of 26.68%.
Q4's revenue is bright and its profit is under pressure, but it has improved significantly month on month.
The company's Q4 revenue grew rapidly, and the effect of early-stage cost investment gradually appeared. Among them, online channels continued to maintain a good growth momentum with the help of e-commerce shopping festival. Profit side: the company's Q4 profit continues to be under pressure, mainly due to 1) the rise of international raw material prices and packaging materials prices, and the rise of production costs; 2) During the year, the industry had phased overcapacity, intensified market competition, poor terminal price increase, increased promotion efforts + channel construction and increased cost investment. In addition, Q4 profit increased by 26.9% month on month, mainly due to the decline of Q3 pulp price + Q4 energy cost month by month, and the pressure on the cost side was relieved.
Paper prices are rising, profits in the repair industry are rising, precision marketing is strengthening the medium and high-end positioning.
In February, the household paper industry issued a new round of price increase letters, and the base paper price generally increased by 200 yuan / ton. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the current market quotation of household paper base paper has reached 67006900 yuan / ton. This round of centralized price increase is expected to improve the industry's profitability. The company also issued a price adjustment notice earlier (October 28) and planned to adjust the price of its products from January 1, 2022. At present, the vast majority of the company's products have implemented price increases, and the price increases vary according to regions, stores and specific products. In addition, according to the company's public exchange of information, the company's sales expenses will remain relatively stable in 2022. It will make precise investment for high gross profit and key single products, and reduce the promotion of some products. Previously, the "Chinese face" publicity campaign jointly launched by the company in the Spring Festival Schedule People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) had a good response. Through precision marketing, the company continues to strengthen the medium and high-end positioning, seize the minds of consumers, further tilt resources to high gross profit products, increase the proportion, and continuously optimize the product structure.
Investment advice
The company continued to increase the proportion of high-end products, increased the expansion and cultivation of individual protection categories, completed the matrix of high, medium and low brands, and the product structure was consistent with the consumption development trend, focusing on the main industry of household paper to seize the market share. All channels go hand in hand, and e-commerce and emerging channels perform prominently. At present, the production capacity in hand is about 800000 tons, and it is planned to expand the production capacity by 100000 tons per year to gradually improve the scale effect and market share. The company's management system has changed to professional managers, and the performance has successfully achieved the incentive target in 2021. The company will continue to optimize the management system and improve the management efficiency. We expect the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 9.194104.77/11.65 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.5% / 14.0% / 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 583 / 705 / 839 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 35.6% / + 20.8% / + 19.1%, corresponding to PE of 33.18x, 27.45x and 23.05x. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the industry competition intensifies, and the production capacity is less than expected
