Macro liquidity and capital price:
At the end of the month, the amount of reverse repurchase operations decreased, and the central bank comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 0.5%. After the end of the next month, the scale of one-day reverse repo operation in the open market of the central bank decreased to 10 billion yuan. A total of 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire in the next week. On December 6, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021, releasing a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. The purpose of the reduction is first to strengthen cross cycle adjustment, and secondly to replace the 950 billion MLF line due on December 15.
The landing of RRR reduction is expected to push the risk-free interest rate down slightly again. As of December 3, the yields of one-year treasury bonds and ten-year Treasury bonds were 2.25% and 2.87% respectively, with changes of + 1.23bp and + 5.01bp compared with the previous week. Since November, the bond market has been expected to deposit monetary easing, and the risk-free interest rate has fallen slightly. It is expected to push the risk-free interest rate down again.
Powell's attitude turned eagle, accelerated taper and abandoned the theory of temporary inflation. At present, inflation in the United States is still "high fever". On November 30, when attending a hearing of the Senate committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the pace of debt reduction may be faster than the $15 billion per month announced earlier this month. Although the U.S. non farm data in November was lower than expected, we believe that under the pressure of high inflation, the short disturbance of employment lower than expected may be difficult to stop taper from accelerating the pace and accelerating the completion of taper, or it is still a probability event. Follow up attention will be paid to the December interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve from December 15 to 16.
The implied risk premium of A-Shares is above the average. The implied risk premium of A-Shares decreased slightly by 6.5bp. "CSI 300 dividend yield - yu'e Bao 7-day annualized yield" was 0.072%, down 2.87bp from the previous week.
Micro liquidity and capital supply and demand:
The public offering has warmed up and the explosion fund reappeared. In November, 107 stocks and hybrid funds were issued, raising about 92.4 billion, up about 17.25% month on month compared with October; In the past week, 36 equity and hybrid funds have been issued, with an estimated issuance scale of about 36.223 billion, which has recovered from the previous period. Among them, the distribution heat of star products is still better. On December 2, Ruiyuan Wenjin allocation fund was officially issued and sold for about 100 billion a day. On December 3, the Bank of communications Schroeder Qicheng a was officially issued and the raising was completed within one day.
Lugutong ranks first in terms of additional electronic, electrical equipment and chemical industry. In the past week, the land stock connect fund bought a net 15.12 billion, with a total net inflow of 18.49 billion in November. Last week, electronics, electrical equipment and chemical industry were among the top net holdings of northbound funds, and food and beverage were sold more. Luchutong has been flowing into electrical equipment, electronics and chemical industry for many weeks; However, the net reduction of home appliances, building materials and banks ranks first, which may indicate that foreign capital has doubts about the strength of the real estate rebound.
Financing funds flowed out of the financial sector for several weeks. In the past week, the net increase of leveraged funds in medicine, biology, automobile, food and beverage ranked first; Electrical equipment, non bank finance and media were among the top sellers. Recently, the fluctuation in the electrical equipment sector has increased, and the leveraged funds around the financial sector have been net sold.
In terms of capital demand, the recent scale of equity financing and the net reduction of industrial capital are at a normal level. The industries with high net reduction amount include pharmaceutical and biological (1.54 billion), chemical (1.48 billion) and mechanical equipment (1.41 billion). The large-scale stocks to be lifted in the coming week include Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (about 298.8 billion), Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) (about 18.2 billion) and Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (about 13.6 billion).
Institutional behavior observation:
Recently, industries with high research popularity include electronics, medicine, machinery, chemical industry, electrical equipment, etc. On the whole, the research heat in recent four weeks is still relatively low. The secondary industries that have increased significantly include commercial trade, comprehensive, communications, etc.
Risk tip: there is error in data statistics
