Event: the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2022.
Politburo meeting releases three signals
First, emphasize the importance of steady growth, and monetary policy is expected to be further relaxed. This Politburo meeting re mentioned the six stabilities and six guarantees, pointed out that "we should strive to stabilize the macro-economic market, keep the economic operation within a reasonable range and maintain the overall social stability", and stressed that "next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability". Compared with the statement of the Politburo meeting in July, this meeting puts more emphasis on steady growth, and it is expected that the steady growth policy will be further overweight in the first half of next year. In terms of monetary policy, it is proposed that "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity", emphasizing the necessity of timely adjustment of monetary policy, which is more positive than the expression in July. After Premier Li Keqiang proposed "timely RRR reduction" on December 3, the RRR reduction was officially announced on December 6. From the rapid implementation of the policy, we can also see the trend of steady growth and monetary easing, and we can look forward to further easing of monetary policy in the future.
Second, pay attention to preventing and resolving real estate financial risks, and increase the stability maintenance support of real estate. There are obvious changes in the expression of real estate at this meeting. First, the principle of "real estate is not fried" is not mentioned; The second is to emphasize "promoting the construction of affordable housing, supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promoting the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry". We believe that the failure to mention "real estate without speculation" does not mean that the tone of the real estate policy has completely changed, but compared with the statement in July, this meeting does show the care of the real estate industry. Since 2021, China's real estate regulatory policies and real estate financial policies have been further tightened, and credit risk events have accelerated. The statements made at this meeting are conducive to maintaining market expectations and implementing steady growth. In terms of specific measures, under the background of meeting the reasonable needs of home buyers, the subsequent constraints on housing loans are expected to be relaxed.
Third, implement "common prosperity", focus on scientific and technological innovation, expand consumption and equalization of public services. Focusing on the long-term theme of "common prosperity", the conference emphasized scientific and technological innovation and promoting consumption in terms of high-quality development. For scientific and technological innovation, the meeting pointed out that "improve the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and enhance the resilience of the supply chain", "speed up the implementation of scientific and technological policies, continue to tackle key core technologies, strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological force, strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation, and realize a virtuous cycle of science, technology, industry and finance". High-end manufacturing technologies need to be broken through, The capital market's support for small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises is expected to be further increased. For consumption, the meeting pointed out that "we should implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promote the sustained recovery of consumption". On the one hand, the upgrading of the consumption supply side will continue; On the other hand, policies to promote demand are expected to increase. In terms of fertility and public services, the meeting pointed out that "promoting the implementation of new fertility policies, promoting the national overall planning of basic old-age insurance, improving the system of providing basic public services in permanent residence", continuing the idea of equalization of public services, and subsequent specific measures need to be gradually implemented.
Pay attention to the repair of the value sector in the short term, and focus on scientific and technological innovation and consumption upgrading in the long term
Focus on the repair of real estate, finance and consumption in the short term. In the context of steady growth and risk prevention, the real estate policy constraints are expected to usher in marginal easing, and the sector is expected to improve; Under the tone of expanding domestic demand, pay attention to the consumption sector that has been partially adjusted in the early stage; Under the trend of marginal easing of monetary policy, banks, non bank finance and other sectors benefited relatively.
In the long run, "common prosperity" is still the main policy context. On the one hand, scientific and technological innovation is the first starting point for high-quality development. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant opportunities of scientific and technological industries, including high-end manufacturing, digital economy industry, quantum information, gene technology and other future industries; On the other hand, pay attention to the long-term development opportunities of industries related to consumption upgrading, including new consumption sectors such as pet economy, online entertainment and fitness consumption, as well as breakthroughs in high-end brands in cosmetics, clothing, home textiles, electronic products and other industries.
Risk tips: 1) policy promotion is not as expected; 2) The increase of overseas uncertainty has a great impact on the Chinese market; 3) Macroeconomic recovery was less than expected.
