\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 356 Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) )
Peg leading enterprise leading biomedical innovation with material innovation. As the only listed company in China's medical polyethylene glycol (PEG) track, Jiankai is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of PEG and its active derivatives, providing peg medical application services, independently developing and innovating peg drugs and class III medical devices, and providing peg supply for about 2 / 3 of peg drug projects listed and under clinical research in China. In 2020, the company's operating revenue was 187 million yuan (+ 38.94%), and the net profit deducted from non parent company was 83 million yuan (+ 51.73%). The optimization of income structure resulted in the acceleration of profit end higher than that of income end. A sound talent development echelon and stable investment in research and development will further consolidate the company's leading position in China in the field of polyethylene glycol materials.
Peg industry is a customized processing track with innovative R & D characteristics. Polyethylene glycol is the best biocompatible organic material so far. Coupling its derivatives to the surface of drug molecules can significantly improve the physicochemical properties of drugs. Based on this, PEGylation is the world's advanced pharmaceutical molecular modification and drug delivery technology: it is widely used, covering two scenes of drugs and devices; Broad prospects. Without considering the listing of new drugs, it is conservatively expected that the market scale of PEG modified protein drugs in China will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 30% from 2020 to 2025, reaching about 30 billion yuan in 2025; The technology is difficult, and the whole chain from "raw material preparation → derivative design → drug PEG modification" is full of barriers.
Three technologies (raw material development + Derivative Development + application innovation) build competitive barriers. Over the years, the company has held 63 patents and more than 600 products, and established a complete and independent core technology system: high-purity peg raw material development technology, PEG active derivative development technology and PEG pharmaceutical application innovation technology, realizing the whole process coverage from peg raw material, PEG derivative to PEG modified drug development. These three types of technologies rely on each other and go deep layer by layer, which is an important cornerstone to ensure the company's leading position in the industry.
Two markets (stock market + incremental market) forge growth space. Stock market: long-term substitution is gradually becoming a general trend, and the penetration rate of terminal listed drugs continues to increase; The brand effect is becoming more and more obvious, and overseas medical device orders have officially entered the large-scale period. It is estimated that the company's stock market revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 61.4% from 2020 to 2023, and the revenue will reach 730 million yuan in 2023; Incremental market: the iteration of traditional drugs promotes the expansion of the industry, and the application scenario of PEG modification continues to expand under the promotion of innovative drugs and innovative devices.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 175 / 275 / 360 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 104.6% / 56.9% / 31.0%, corresponding EPS of RMB 2.92/4.58/6.00 respectively, and current price corresponding PE of 78 / 50 / 38 times respectively. We gave the company a target price of 293 yuan, covering it for the first time. Considering the company's excellent business competition pattern, deep technical barriers and rich application space for drug and device projects with R & D layout, we gave a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: risk of failure in research and development of innovative products; US international trade protection risk; Core technology iteration risk.
